Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 29/08, 02:00
Prediction: St Louis City II vs North Texas SC
Team pages: St Louis City II · North Texas SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
St Louis City II1.97
North Texas SC0.99
1X2
St Louis City II
Draw
North Texas SC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
St Louis City II
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
North Texas SC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Louis City II
4–1–1
North Texas SC
(6 last)
- North Texas SC3-0St Louis City II
- St Louis City II2-0North Texas SC
- North Texas SC1-3St Louis City II
- St Louis City II2-0North Texas SC
- North Texas SC0-3St Louis City II
- North Texas SC0-0St Louis City II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Louis City II 1479 · North Texas SC 1485
| St Louis City II | Draw | North Texas SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours St Louis City II: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Louis City II | North Texas SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.4 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Louis City II 4–1–1 North Texas SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 3-0 HT 0-0 | St Louis City II |
| 30/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 2-0 HT 0-0 | North Texas SC |
| 17/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | St Louis City II |
| 05/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 2-0 HT 2-0 | North Texas SC |
| 10/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 0-3 HT 0-3 | St Louis City II |
| 03/11/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | St Louis City II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 24 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 48 | 19 | 56 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 26 | 50 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 48 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 30 | 42 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 40 | 41 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 38 | 35 | 39 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 36 | 36 |
| 8 | The Town | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 33 |
| 9 | North Texas SC | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 34 | 34 | 33 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC II | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 36 | 31 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 32 | 46 | 26 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 33 | 54 | 22 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 30 | 61 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 24 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | 45 | 18 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Louis City II | North Texas SC |
|---|---|---|
| The Town | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Colorado Rapids II | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Portland Timbers II | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Austin FC II | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Minnesota United FC II | 2-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: St Louis City II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Louis City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 17/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 19/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
North Texas SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 20/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Louis City II vs North Texas SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St Louis City II win (59%). Probabilities: St Louis City II 59%, draw 23%, North Texas SC 18%.
How many goals are expected in St Louis City II vs North Texas SC?
The model expects 2.96 goals (St Louis City II 1.97 · North Texas SC 0.99), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in St Louis City II vs North Texas SC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.