Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 06/09, 04:30
Prediction: The Town vs Tacoma Defiance
Team pages: The Town · Tacoma Defiance
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
The Town1.74
Tacoma Defiance1.16
1X2
The Town
Draw
Tacoma Defiance
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
The Town
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Tacoma Defiance
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
The Town
0–3–3
Tacoma Defiance
(6 last)
- The Town0-1Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance0-0The Town
- The Town0-1Tacoma Defiance
- Tacoma Defiance4-4The Town
- Tacoma Defiance3-1The Town
- The Town1-1Tacoma Defiance
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · The Town 1454 · Tacoma Defiance 1520
| The Town | Draw | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 51% | 23% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tacoma Defiance (rating 1454 vs 1520).
- H2H favours Tacoma Defiance: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| The Town | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.4 | 1.2 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · The Town 0–3–3 Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 15/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 0-0 HT 0-0 | The Town |
| 29/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 04/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 4-4 HT 2-1 | The Town |
| 15/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 3-1 HT 2-0 | The Town |
| 26/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51 | 21 | 59 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 35 | 27 | 53 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 48 | 28 | 48 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 32 | 45 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 43 | 41 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 39 | 36 | 40 |
| 7 | North Texas SC | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 39 | 36 | 38 |
| 8 | Tacoma Defiance | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 39 | 36 |
| 9 | The Town | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 31 | 36 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC II | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 36 | 34 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 50 | 29 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 38 | 55 | 25 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 31 | 66 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 25 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 48 | 18 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | The Town | Tacoma Defiance |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC II | 3-2 W | 3-4 L |
| Minnesota United FC II | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| North Texas SC | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Sporting Kansas City II | 6-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: The Town (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
The Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/08 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 03/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 13/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 08/07 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Tacoma Defiance
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/08 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 20/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 13/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
According to our model, the most likely result is a The Town win (50%). Probabilities: The Town 50%, draw 25%, Tacoma Defiance 25%.
How many goals are expected in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model expects 2.91 goals (The Town 1.74 · Tacoma Defiance 1.16), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in The Town vs Tacoma Defiance?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.