Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 05/09, 02:45
Prediction: North Texas SC vs Real Monarchs SLC
Team pages: North Texas SC · Real Monarchs SLC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
North Texas SC1.94
Real Monarchs SLC1.41
1X2
North Texas SC
Draw
Real Monarchs SLC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
North Texas SC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Real Monarchs SLC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Texas SC
2–2–2
Real Monarchs SLC
(6 last)
- Real Monarchs SLC2-2North Texas SC
- North Texas SC2-4Real Monarchs SLC
- Real Monarchs SLC1-2North Texas SC
- North Texas SC2-1Real Monarchs SLC
- Real Monarchs SLC1-1North Texas SC
- North Texas SC0-1Real Monarchs SLC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Texas SC 1487 · Real Monarchs SLC 1445
| North Texas SC | Draw | Real Monarchs SLC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Market | 49% | 24% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Texas SC (rating 1487 vs 1445).
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Texas SC | Real Monarchs SLC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Texas SC 2–2–2 Real Monarchs SLC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | North Texas SC |
| 28/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 01/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | North Texas SC |
| 25/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 13/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | North Texas SC |
| 22/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | North Texas SC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 49 | 21 | 56 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 35 | 27 | 53 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 32 | 45 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 43 | 41 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 39 | 36 | 40 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 39 | 36 |
| 8 | The Town | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 31 | 36 |
| 9 | North Texas SC | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC II | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 36 | 34 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 35 | 46 | 29 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 38 | 55 | 25 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 31 | 66 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 25 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 48 | 18 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Texas SC | Real Monarchs SLC |
|---|---|---|
| St Louis City II | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Portland Timbers II | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Tacoma Defiance | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Ventura County FC | 1-6 L | 1-3 L |
| Los Angeles FC II | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Colorado Rapids II | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Real Monarchs SLC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Texas SC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 20/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 16/08 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/07 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Real Monarchs SLC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 20/07 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 22/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Texas SC vs Real Monarchs SLC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a North Texas SC win (49%). Probabilities: North Texas SC 49%, draw 24%, Real Monarchs SLC 27%.
How many goals are expected in North Texas SC vs Real Monarchs SLC?
The model expects 3.35 goals (North Texas SC 1.94 · Real Monarchs SLC 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in North Texas SC vs Real Monarchs SLC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.