Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 06/09, 02:00
Prediction: Sporting Kansas City II vs St Louis City II
Team pages: Sporting Kansas City II · St Louis City II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.09Total
Sporting Kansas City II1.21
St Louis City II1.88
1X2
Sporting Kansas City II
Draw
St Louis City II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting Kansas City II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
St Louis City II
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting Kansas City II
1–5
St Louis City II
(6 last)
- Sporting Kansas City II0-2St Louis City II
- St Louis City II4-0Sporting Kansas City II
- St Louis City II3-0Sporting Kansas City II
- St Louis City II2-0Sporting Kansas City II
- Sporting Kansas City II0-1St Louis City II
- Sporting Kansas City II3-1St Louis City II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City II 1445 · St Louis City II 1492
| Sporting Kansas City II | Draw | St Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Market | 25% | 22% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Louis City II (rating 1445 vs 1492).
- H2H favours St Louis City II: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting Kansas City II | St Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.5 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.5 | 2.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City II 1–0–5 St Louis City II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | St Louis City II |
| 28/02/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 25/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 23/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sporting Kansas City II |
| 15/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 0-1 HT 0-1 | St Louis City II |
| 22/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Sporting Kansas City II | 3-1 HT 2-1 | St Louis City II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51 | 21 | 59 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 35 | 27 | 53 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo II | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 48 | 28 | 48 |
| 4 | Ventura County FC | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 32 | 45 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC II | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 43 | 41 |
| 6 | St Louis City II | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 39 | 36 | 40 |
| 7 | North Texas SC | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 39 | 36 | 38 |
| 8 | Tacoma Defiance | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 39 | 36 |
| 9 | The Town | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 31 | 36 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC II | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 36 | 34 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 50 | 29 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 38 | 55 | 25 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 31 | 66 | 20 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 25 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 48 | 18 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sporting Kansas City II | St Louis City II |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 1-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Colorado Rapids II | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Austin FC II | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Houston Dynamo II | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| The Town | 1-6 L | 2-0 W |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: St Louis City II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting Kansas City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 25/08 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 10/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/07 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/07 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
St Louis City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 17/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 19/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City II vs St Louis City II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an St Louis City II win (53%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City II 24%, draw 23%, St Louis City II 53%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City II vs St Louis City II?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Sporting Kansas City II 1.21 · St Louis City II 1.88), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City II vs St Louis City II?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.