Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/09, 20:00

Prediction: FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy

Team pages: FC Cincinnati II · Crown Legacy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

FC Cincinnati II1.46

Crown Legacy2.27

1X2

23% 22% 55%

FC Cincinnati II Draw Crown Legacy

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cincinnati II 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Crown Legacy 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWLWD

Head-to-head

FC Cincinnati II 2–4 Crown Legacy (6 last)

FC Cincinnati II4-3Crown Legacy
Crown Legacy2-0FC Cincinnati II
FC Cincinnati II1-2Crown Legacy
FC Cincinnati II2-1Crown Legacy
FC Cincinnati II0-1Crown Legacy
Crown Legacy2-1FC Cincinnati II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cincinnati II 1427 · Crown Legacy 1550

	FC Cincinnati II	Draw	Crown Legacy
Our model	23%	22%	55%
Market	23%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crown Legacy (rating 1427 vs 1550).
H2H favours Crown Legacy: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cincinnati II	Crown Legacy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.9	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.10

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.63 ★
2	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:22 +22’	3.80	4.10	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:21 +83’	3.48	4.66	1.69
21:50 +99’	3.48	4.63▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati II 2–0–4 Crown Legacy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	FC Cincinnati II	4-3 HT 1-1	Crown Legacy
26/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Crown Legacy	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Cincinnati II
21/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	FC Cincinnati II	1-2 HT 0-0	Crown Legacy
04/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	FC Cincinnati II	2-1 HT 0-0	Crown Legacy
30/07/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	FC Cincinnati II	0-1 HT 0-1	Crown Legacy
01/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Crown Legacy	2-1 HT 2-0	FC Cincinnati II

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	27	14	8	5	65	38	55
2	Chattanooga FC	27	14	7	6	55	39	53
3	New York Red Bulls II	27	13	5	9	57	46	46
4	Columbus Crew II	27	12	6	9	48	42	46
5	Atlanta United II	27	13	5	9	58	44	45
6	New York City FC II	27	13	4	10	49	43	45
7	New England Revolution II	27	11	8	8	44	41	45
8	Orlando City II	27	11	7	9	53	52	44
9	CT United	27	13	2	12	52	50	43
10	Philadelphia Union II	27	12	4	11	36	39	42
11	Huntsville City	27	11	6	10	47	46	41
12	Toronto FC II	27	11	4	12	47	53	39
13	Chicago Fire II	27	10	6	11	50	47	39
14	Carolina Core FC	27	5	10	12	39	52	30
15	FC Cincinnati II	27	5	3	19	31	60	20
16	Inter Miami CF II	27	3	5	19	28	67	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cincinnati II	Crown Legacy
New York Red Bulls II	1-1 D	3-0 W
Carolina Core FC	3-1 W	2-2 D
CT United	2-3 L	0-2 L
Chicago Fire II	2-7 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Cincinnati II

LDLLLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
05/09	Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
30/08	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-3	6	4	L
23/08	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-1	3	2	W
19/08	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-3	0-5	6	3	L
17/08	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	2-3	4	6	L
08/08	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
02/08	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-4	2-7	1	1	L
27/07	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
18/07	Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-3	1-3	6	7	L

Crown Legacy

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-2	12	4	D
04/09	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	4-0	1	7	W
31/08	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
24/08	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-1	1	7	W
20/08	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
13/08	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
08/08	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
02/08	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
25/07	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
18/07	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	3-2	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Crown Legacy win (55%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati II 23%, draw 22%, Crown Legacy 55%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy?

The model expects 3.73 goals (FC Cincinnati II 1.46 · Crown Legacy 2.27), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.