Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/09, 20:00
Prediction: Philadelphia Union II vs New York City FC II
Team pages: Philadelphia Union II · New York City FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.6Total
Philadelphia Union II1.96
New York City FC II1.64
1X2
Philadelphia Union II
Draw
New York City FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Philadelphia Union II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
New York City FC II
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Philadelphia Union II
4–1–1
New York City FC II
(6 last)
- New York City FC II1-1Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II0-1New York City FC II
- Philadelphia Union II4-3New York City FC II
- New York City FC II0-2Philadelphia Union II
- New York City FC II1-4Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II1-0New York City FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union II 1525 · New York City FC II 1506
| Philadelphia Union II | Draw | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 23% | 32% |
| Market | 45% | 23% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Philadelphia Union II: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Philadelphia Union II | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3 | 2.4 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union II 4–1–1 New York City FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 14/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 0-1 HT 0-0 | New York City FC II |
| 05/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 4-3 HT 2-2 | New York City FC II |
| 26/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 24/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 20/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | New York City FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 65 | 38 | 55 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 27 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 55 | 39 | 53 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls II | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 57 | 46 | 46 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 48 | 42 | 46 |
| 5 | Atlanta United II | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 58 | 44 | 45 |
| 6 | New York City FC II | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 43 | 45 |
| 7 | New England Revolution II | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 44 | 41 | 45 |
| 8 | Orlando City II | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 53 | 52 | 44 |
| 9 | CT United | 27 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 50 | 43 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Union II | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 42 |
| 11 | Huntsville City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 47 | 46 | 41 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 53 | 39 |
| 13 | Chicago Fire II | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 50 | 47 | 39 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 52 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 31 | 60 | 20 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 28 | 67 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Philadelphia Union II | New York City FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew II | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| FC Cincinnati II | 3-2 W | 5-0 W |
| CT United | 2-4 L | 1-0 W |
| New England Revolution II | 4-3 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: New York City FC II (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 12 | L |
| 17/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/07 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
New York City FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 08/09 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/09 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union II vs New York City FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union II win (45%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union II 45%, draw 23%, New York City FC II 32%.
How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union II vs New York City FC II?
The model expects 3.6 goals (Philadelphia Union II 1.96 · New York City FC II 1.64), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union II vs New York City FC II?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.