Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 20/09, 20:00

Prediction: Toronto FC II vs New England Revolution II

Team pages: Toronto FC II · New England Revolution II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Toronto FC II1.65

New England Revolution II2.02

1X2

31% 23% 46%

Toronto FC II Draw New England Revolution II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Toronto FC II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLWWWL

New England Revolution II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLLDD

Head-to-head

Toronto FC II 0–3–3 New England Revolution II (6 last)

Toronto FC II1-3New England Revolution II
New England Revolution II0-0Toronto FC II
New England Revolution II2-1Toronto FC II
Toronto FC II3-3New England Revolution II
New England Revolution II4-0Toronto FC II
New England Revolution II2-2Toronto FC II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toronto FC II 1502 · New England Revolution II 1494

	Toronto FC II	Draw	New England Revolution II
Our model	31%	23%	46%
Market	31%	23%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New England Revolution II: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toronto FC II	New England Revolution II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.80

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.99
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.07 ★
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:41 +1’	2.90	3.80	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:00 +102’	2.96	4.02	1.98
23:39 +55’	2.95▼	4.01▼	1.98
01:31 +8’	2.99▲	4.07▲	1.95▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC II 0–3–3 New England Revolution II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Toronto FC II	1-3 HT 1-0	New England Revolution II
08/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	New England Revolution II	0-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC II
12/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	New England Revolution II	2-1 HT 1-0	Toronto FC II
04/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Toronto FC II	3-3 HT 1-2	New England Revolution II
28/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	New England Revolution II	4-0 HT 1-0	Toronto FC II
09/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	New England Revolution II	2-2 HT 1-1	Toronto FC II

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	27	14	8	5	65	38	55
2	Chattanooga FC	27	14	7	6	55	39	53
3	New York Red Bulls II	27	13	5	9	57	46	46
4	Columbus Crew II	27	12	6	9	48	42	46
5	Atlanta United II	27	13	5	9	58	44	45
6	New York City FC II	27	13	4	10	49	43	45
7	New England Revolution II	27	11	8	8	44	41	45
8	Orlando City II	27	11	7	9	53	52	44
9	CT United	27	13	2	12	52	50	43
10	Philadelphia Union II	27	12	4	11	36	39	42
11	Huntsville City	27	11	6	10	47	46	41
12	Toronto FC II	27	11	4	12	47	53	39
13	Chicago Fire II	27	10	6	11	50	47	39
14	Carolina Core FC	27	5	10	12	39	52	30
15	FC Cincinnati II	27	5	3	19	31	60	20
16	Inter Miami CF II	27	3	5	19	28	67	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toronto FC II	New England Revolution II
Columbus Crew II	4-2 W	1-1 D
FC Cincinnati II	2-1 W	2-2 D
New York City FC II	2-0 W	1-2 L
New York Red Bulls II	1-5 L	4-1 W
Inter Miami CF II	1-2 L	2-4 L
CT United	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Toronto FC II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toronto FC II

LWLWDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
08/09	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	4-2	4	3	W
05/09	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
29/08	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
24/08	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	1-5	5	3	L
15/08	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
10/08	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	4-2	0	4	W
25/07	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-2	4	8	L
18/07	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	3-1	7	7	W
13/07	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-3	3	2	L

New England Revolution II

WDWWLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
05/09	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	2-2	2	5	D
31/08	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
22/08	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
20/08	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-3	2-4	10	3	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-3	3-4	8	10	L
09/08	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
02/08	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	4-1	2	8	W
27/07	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	8	4	D
23/07	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	3-0	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toronto FC II vs New England Revolution II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an New England Revolution II win (46%). Probabilities: Toronto FC II 31%, draw 23%, New England Revolution II 46%.

How many goals are expected in Toronto FC II vs New England Revolution II?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Toronto FC II 1.65 · New England Revolution II 2.02), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Toronto FC II vs New England Revolution II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.