Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 04/09, 23:30
Prediction: Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II
Team pages: Crown Legacy · Chicago Fire II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.92Total
Crown Legacy2.33
Chicago Fire II1.59
1X2
Crown Legacy
Draw
Chicago Fire II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Crown Legacy
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Chicago Fire II
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crown Legacy
3–1–2
Chicago Fire II
(6 last)
- Crown Legacy3-2Chicago Fire II
- Chicago Fire II3-2Crown Legacy
- Chicago Fire II1-1Crown Legacy
- Crown Legacy5-1Chicago Fire II
- Chicago Fire II2-0Crown Legacy
- Crown Legacy4-2Chicago Fire II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crown Legacy 1518 · Chicago Fire II 1514
| Crown Legacy | Draw | Chicago Fire II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 21% | 25% |
| Market | 53% | 22% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Crown Legacy: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crown Legacy | Chicago Fire II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.5 | 2.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.5 | 1.9 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crown Legacy 3–1–2 Chicago Fire II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Chicago Fire II |
| 10/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Crown Legacy |
| 01/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Crown Legacy |
| 30/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Chicago Fire II |
| 11/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Crown Legacy |
| 25/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Chicago Fire II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 59 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 37 | 47 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew II | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 45 |
| 4 | New York Red Bulls II | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 44 |
| 5 | CT United | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 45 | 43 |
| 6 | Atlanta United II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 53 | 39 | 42 |
| 7 | New England Revolution II | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 38 | 42 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 39 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 41 | 39 |
| 10 | Huntsville City | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 43 | 38 |
| 11 | Orlando City II | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 50 | 38 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 38 | 36 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 40 | 47 | 33 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 48 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 29 | 57 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 57 | 12 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crown Legacy | Chicago Fire II |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando City II | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Huntsville City | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Inter Miami CF II | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| New York Red Bulls II | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire II (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crown Legacy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/08 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 20/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 13/08 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 08/08 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Chicago Fire II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/08 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
4-2 | 7-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 06/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crown Legacy win (53%). Probabilities: Crown Legacy 53%, draw 22%, Chicago Fire II 25%.
How many goals are expected in Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II?
The model expects 3.92 goals (Crown Legacy 2.33 · Chicago Fire II 1.59), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.