Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 09/09, 01:00
Prediction: New York City FC II vs New York Red Bulls II
Team pages: New York City FC II · New York Red Bulls II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.85Total
New York City FC II1.82
New York Red Bulls II2.03
1X2
New York City FC II
Draw
New York Red Bulls II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
New York City FC II
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
New York Red Bulls II
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New York City FC II
2–2–2
New York Red Bulls II
(6 last)
- New York Red Bulls II2-3New York City FC II
- New York City FC II1-1New York Red Bulls II
- New York Red Bulls II4-2New York City FC II
- New York City FC II5-2New York Red Bulls II
- New York Red Bulls II3-2New York City FC II
- New York Red Bulls II1-1New York City FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New York City FC II 1501 · New York Red Bulls II 1518
| New York City FC II | Draw | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | 34% | 23% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York City FC II | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5 | 2.6 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.7 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC II 2–2–2 New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 2-3 HT 0-0 | New York City FC II |
| 15/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 1-1 HT 1-1 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 21/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 4-2 HT 3-2 | New York City FC II |
| 10/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 5-2 HT 1-2 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 30/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 3-2 HT 1-1 | New York City FC II |
| 12/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 1-1 HT 0-1 | New York City FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 36 | 54 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 37 | 47 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 37 | 45 |
| 4 | New York Red Bulls II | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 44 |
| 5 | CT United | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 45 | 43 |
| 6 | New England Revolution II | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 44 | 43 |
| 7 | Atlanta United II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 53 | 39 | 42 |
| 8 | Orlando City II | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 51 | 41 |
| 9 | New York City FC II | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 44 | 41 | 39 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Union II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 38 | 39 |
| 11 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 45 | 39 |
| 12 | Huntsville City | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 43 | 38 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 42 | 48 | 36 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 41 | 52 | 28 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 30 | 59 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 63 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New York City FC II | New York Red Bulls II |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC II | 0-2 L | 5-1 W |
| New England Revolution II | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| FC Cincinnati II | 5-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Columbus Crew II | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Philadelphia Union II | 1-1 D | 5-0 W |
| Atlanta United II | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Crown Legacy | 3-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: New York Red Bulls II (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York City FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 25/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 06/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New York City FC II vs New York Red Bulls II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an New York Red Bulls II win (43%). Probabilities: New York City FC II 35%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls II 43%.
How many goals are expected in New York City FC II vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model expects 3.85 goals (New York City FC II 1.82 · New York Red Bulls II 2.03), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in New York City FC II vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.