Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 13/09, 01:00

Prediction: Crown Legacy vs Carolina Core FC

Team pages: Crown Legacy · Carolina Core FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Crown Legacy2.29

Carolina Core FC1.31

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Crown Legacy Draw Carolina Core FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Crown Legacy 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDLWLW

Carolina Core FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDWLLD

Head-to-head

Crown Legacy 1–2–3 Carolina Core FC (6 last)

Carolina Core FC2-0Crown Legacy
Carolina Core FC2-2Crown Legacy
Crown Legacy3-4Carolina Core FC
Crown Legacy0-0Carolina Core FC
Carolina Core FC1-2Crown Legacy
Carolina Core FC2-1Crown Legacy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crown Legacy 1533 · Carolina Core FC 1475

	Crown Legacy	Draw	Carolina Core FC
Our model	59%	21%	20%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crown Legacy (rating 1533 vs 1475).
H2H favours Carolina Core FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crown Legacy	Carolina Core FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	1.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.53▲	Bet365 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.53
2	5.00 → 4.50▼	Pinn 5.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +2’	1.48	4.20	5.00
12:08 +6’	1.53▲	4.10▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:00 +77’	1.50	4.45	4.97
06:47 +62’	1.50▲	4.43▼	4.96▼
21:44 +13’	1.50	4.44▲	4.96
23:04 +17’	1.51▲	4.53▲	5.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crown Legacy 1–2–3 Carolina Core FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Carolina Core FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Crown Legacy
26/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Carolina Core FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Crown Legacy
05/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Crown Legacy	3-4 HT 1-2	Carolina Core FC
10/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Crown Legacy	0-0 HT 0-0	Carolina Core FC
27/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Carolina Core FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Crown Legacy
15/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Carolina Core FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Crown Legacy

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	26	14	7	5	63	36	54
2	Chattanooga FC	26	13	7	6	51	38	50
3	Atlanta United II	26	13	5	8	57	40	45
4	Columbus Crew II	26	12	5	9	47	41	45
5	New York Red Bulls II	26	13	4	9	56	45	44
6	CT United	26	13	2	11	52	49	43
7	New England Revolution II	26	11	7	8	43	40	43
8	New York City FC II	26	12	4	10	48	43	42
9	Orlando City II	26	10	7	9	50	51	41
10	Toronto FC II	26	11	4	11	46	50	39
11	Philadelphia Union II	26	11	4	11	34	38	39
12	Chicago Fire II	26	10	6	10	49	45	39
13	Huntsville City	26	10	6	10	43	45	38
14	Carolina Core FC	26	5	9	12	37	50	28
15	FC Cincinnati II	26	5	2	19	30	59	19
16	Inter Miami CF II	26	3	5	18	27	63	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crown Legacy	Carolina Core FC
Chicago Fire II	4-0 W	1-5 L
Chattanooga FC	3-1 W	2-5 L
CT United	0-2 L	1-3 L
Huntsville City	2-2 D	2-0 W
Inter Miami CF II	2-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crown Legacy

LWWWWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	4-0	1	7	W
31/08	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
24/08	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-1	1	7	W
20/08	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
13/08	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
08/08	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
02/08	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
25/07	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
18/07	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	3-2	10	2	W
12/07	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-3	0-3	9	4	L

Carolina Core FC

WLDWLDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	2-2	6	5	D
30/08	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-5	4	5	L
23/08	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-3	7	2	L
09/08	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
31/07	Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-3	3-3	6	2	D
26/07	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-3	1-5	3	6	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
12/07	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
06/07	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-3	5	7	L
29/06	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-0	13	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crown Legacy vs Carolina Core FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Crown Legacy win (58%). Probabilities: Crown Legacy 58%, draw 22%, Carolina Core FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Crown Legacy vs Carolina Core FC?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Crown Legacy 2.29 · Carolina Core FC 1.31), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Crown Legacy vs Carolina Core FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.