Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 14/09, 01:00
Prediction: New York Red Bulls II vs FC Cincinnati II
Team pages: New York Red Bulls II · FC Cincinnati II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.21Total
New York Red Bulls II2.84
FC Cincinnati II1.37
1X2
New York Red Bulls II
Draw
FC Cincinnati II
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
New York Red Bulls II
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
FC Cincinnati II
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New York Red Bulls II
1–2–3
FC Cincinnati II
(6 last)
- FC Cincinnati II2-2New York Red Bulls II
- New York Red Bulls II3-1FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II2-1New York Red Bulls II
- New York Red Bulls II3-3FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II3-1New York Red Bulls II
- New York Red Bulls II1-4FC Cincinnati II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls II 1502 · FC Cincinnati II 1421
| New York Red Bulls II | Draw | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 17% | 16% |
| Market | 67% | 17% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.21 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York Red Bulls II (rating 1502 vs 1421).
- H2H favours FC Cincinnati II: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York Red Bulls II | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.3 | 1.5 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.3 | 2.2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.3 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls II 1–2–3 FC Cincinnati II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 2-2 HT 0-2 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 19/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 02/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 30/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 3-3 HT 2-2 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 21/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 3-1 HT 2-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 19/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 1-4 HT 0-2 | FC Cincinnati II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 36 | 54 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 51 | 38 | 50 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 40 | 45 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 45 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 45 | 44 |
| 6 | CT United | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 52 | 49 | 43 |
| 7 | New England Revolution II | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | 43 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 43 | 42 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 51 | 41 |
| 10 | Toronto FC II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 50 | 39 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 38 | 39 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 45 | 39 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 45 | 38 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 50 | 28 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 30 | 59 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 63 | 15 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New York Red Bulls II | FC Cincinnati II |
|---|---|---|
| New York City FC II | 2-4 L | 0-5 L |
| CT United | 4-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Toronto FC II | 5-1 W | 1-2 L |
| New England Revolution II | 1-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Chicago Fire II | 0-3 L | 2-7 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: New York Red Bulls II (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York Red Bulls II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 25/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 06/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
FC Cincinnati II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-4 | 2-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 27/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls II vs FC Cincinnati II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a New York Red Bulls II win (67%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls II 67%, draw 17%, FC Cincinnati II 16%.
How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model expects 4.21 goals (New York Red Bulls II 2.84 · FC Cincinnati II 1.37), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.