Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 14/09, 01:00
Prediction: Orlando City II vs Toronto FC II
Team pages: Orlando City II · Toronto FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.8Total
Orlando City II2.08
Toronto FC II1.73
1X2
Orlando City II
Draw
Toronto FC II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Orlando City II
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Toronto FC II
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Orlando City II
1–5
Toronto FC II
(6 last)
- Orlando City II1-2Toronto FC II
- Orlando City II1-2Toronto FC II
- Orlando City II3-2Toronto FC II
- Orlando City II1-2Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II3-0Orlando City II
- Toronto FC II3-2Orlando City II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Orlando City II 1486 · Toronto FC II 1517
| Orlando City II | Draw | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 23% | 32% |
| Market | 45% | 23% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Toronto FC II: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orlando City II | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.1 | 2.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.8 | 1.4 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City II 1–0–5 Toronto FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Toronto FC II |
| 28/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Toronto FC II |
| 01/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Toronto FC II |
| 18/09/22 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 08/08/22 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Orlando City II |
| 13/09/19 USA USL League One | Toronto FC II | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Orlando City II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 36 | 54 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 51 | 38 | 50 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 40 | 45 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 45 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 56 | 45 | 44 |
| 6 | CT United | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 52 | 49 | 43 |
| 7 | New England Revolution II | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | 43 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 43 | 42 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 51 | 41 |
| 10 | Toronto FC II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 46 | 50 | 39 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 38 | 39 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 45 | 39 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 45 | 38 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 50 | 28 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 30 | 59 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 63 | 15 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orlando City II | Toronto FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami CF II | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Atlanta United II | 1-5 L | 0-1 L |
| Chicago Fire II | 0-2 L | 4-2 W |
| New York City FC II | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| CT United | 2-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Chattanooga FC | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| FC Cincinnati II | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Toronto FC II (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orlando City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 11/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 13/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orlando City II vs Toronto FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Orlando City II win (45%). Probabilities: Orlando City II 45%, draw 23%, Toronto FC II 32%.
How many goals are expected in Orlando City II vs Toronto FC II?
The model expects 3.8 goals (Orlando City II 2.08 · Toronto FC II 1.73), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Orlando City II vs Toronto FC II?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.