Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 05/09, 00:30

Prediction: Carolina Core FC vs New England Revolution II

Team pages: Carolina Core FC · New England Revolution II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Carolina Core FC1.8

New England Revolution II1.93

1X2

35% 24% 41%

Carolina Core FC Draw New England Revolution II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Carolina Core FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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New England Revolution II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Carolina Core FC 2–1 New England Revolution II (3 last)

Carolina Core FC1-0New England Revolution II
Carolina Core FC2-1New England Revolution II
New England Revolution II2-1Carolina Core FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carolina Core FC 1469 · New England Revolution II 1479

	Carolina Core FC	Draw	New England Revolution II
Our model	36%	23%	41%
Market	35%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carolina Core FC: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carolina Core FC	New England Revolution II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.5	2.3 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.96 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.63
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +14’	2.55	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:26	2.96	3.63	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carolina Core FC 2–0–1 New England Revolution II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Carolina Core FC	1-0 HT 0-0	New England Revolution II
25/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Carolina Core FC	2-1 HT 0-1	New England Revolution II
31/03/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	New England Revolution II	2-1 HT 1-1	Carolina Core FC

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	25	13	7	5	59	36	51
2	Chattanooga FC	25	12	7	6	49	37	47
3	Columbus Crew II	24	12	5	7	45	36	45
4	New York Red Bulls II	25	13	4	8	54	41	44
5	CT United	25	13	2	10	51	45	43
6	Atlanta United II	25	12	5	8	53	39	42
7	New England Revolution II	25	11	6	8	41	38	42
8	New York City FC II	24	11	4	9	42	37	39
9	Chicago Fire II	25	10	6	9	49	41	39
10	Huntsville City	25	10	6	9	42	43	38
11	Orlando City II	25	9	7	9	46	50	38
12	Philadelphia Union II	25	10	4	11	33	38	36
13	Toronto FC II	24	9	4	11	40	47	33
14	Carolina Core FC	25	5	8	12	35	48	26
15	FC Cincinnati II	25	5	2	18	29	57	19
16	Inter Miami CF II	24	2	5	17	22	57	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carolina Core FC	New England Revolution II
FC Cincinnati II	1-3 L	2-2 D
Huntsville City	2-0 W	1-4 L
Inter Miami CF II	4-0 W	2-4 L
CT United	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carolina Core FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-5	4	5	L
23/08	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-3	7	2	L
09/08	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
31/07	Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-3	3-3	6	2	D
26/07	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-3	1-5	3	6	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
12/07	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
06/07	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-3	5	7	L
29/06	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-0	13	2	W
21/06	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

New England Revolution II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-4	7	6	L
22/08	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
20/08	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-3	2-4	10	3	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-3	3-4	8	10	L
09/08	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
02/08	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	4-1	2	8	W
27/07	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	8	4	D
23/07	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	3-0	2	5	W
16/07	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	2-2	9	6	D
05/07	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	0-4	11	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carolina Core FC vs New England Revolution II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an New England Revolution II win (41%). Probabilities: Carolina Core FC 35%, draw 24%, New England Revolution II 41%.

How many goals are expected in Carolina Core FC vs New England Revolution II?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Carolina Core FC 1.8 · New England Revolution II 1.93), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carolina Core FC vs New England Revolution II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.