Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 05/09, 01:00
Prediction: Philadelphia Union II vs Columbus Crew II
Team pages: Philadelphia Union II · Columbus Crew II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.29Total
Philadelphia Union II1.74
Columbus Crew II1.56
1X2
Philadelphia Union II
Draw
Columbus Crew II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Philadelphia Union II
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Columbus Crew II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Philadelphia Union II
4–1–1
Columbus Crew II
(6 last)
- Columbus Crew II2-0Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II1-1Columbus Crew II
- Columbus Crew II1-3Philadelphia Union II
- Columbus Crew II1-3Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II3-0Columbus Crew II
- Philadelphia Union II4-0Columbus Crew II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union II 1518 · Columbus Crew II 1517
| Philadelphia Union II | Draw | Columbus Crew II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 42% | 24% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Philadelphia Union II: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Philadelphia Union II | Columbus Crew II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.2 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.1 | 1.3 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union II 4–1–1 Columbus Crew II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 17/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Columbus Crew II |
| 14/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 21/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 11/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Columbus Crew II |
| 02/11/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Columbus Crew II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 59 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 37 | 47 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew II | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 45 |
| 4 | New York Red Bulls II | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 44 |
| 5 | CT United | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 45 | 43 |
| 6 | Atlanta United II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 53 | 39 | 42 |
| 7 | New England Revolution II | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 38 | 42 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 39 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 41 | 39 |
| 10 | Huntsville City | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 43 | 38 |
| 11 | Orlando City II | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 50 | 38 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 38 | 36 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 40 | 47 | 33 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 48 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 29 | 57 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 57 | 12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Philadelphia Union II | Columbus Crew II |
|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati II | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| CT United | 2-4 L | 1-2 L |
| New England Revolution II | 4-3 W | 2-2 D |
| New York City FC II | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| Huntsville City | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| New York Red Bulls II | 0-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Columbus Crew II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 12 | L |
| 17/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/07 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 29/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
Columbus Crew II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 27/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 16/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 29/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/06 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union II vs Columbus Crew II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union II win (41%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union II 41%, draw 25%, Columbus Crew II 34%.
How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union II vs Columbus Crew II?
The model expects 3.29 goals (Philadelphia Union II 1.74 · Columbus Crew II 1.56), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union II vs Columbus Crew II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.