Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 05/09, 01:00
Prediction: Toronto FC II vs FC Cincinnati II
Team pages: Toronto FC II · FC Cincinnati II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.75Total
Toronto FC II2.28
FC Cincinnati II1.47
1X2
Toronto FC II
Draw
FC Cincinnati II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Toronto FC II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
FC Cincinnati II
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Toronto FC II
4–1–1
FC Cincinnati II
(6 last)
- Toronto FC II3-1FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II5-0Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II1-0FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II1-1Toronto FC II
- FC Cincinnati II0-1Toronto FC II
- FC Cincinnati II0-2Toronto FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toronto FC II 1467 · FC Cincinnati II 1431
| Toronto FC II | Draw | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Toronto FC II: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toronto FC II | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.4 | 1.6 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 1.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.3 | 2.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC II 4–1–1 FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 3-1 HT 3-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 04/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 5-0 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 16/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 09/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 09/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Toronto FC II |
| 02/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Toronto FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 59 | 36 | 51 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 37 | 47 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew II | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 45 |
| 4 | New York Red Bulls II | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 44 |
| 5 | CT United | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 51 | 45 | 43 |
| 6 | Atlanta United II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 53 | 39 | 42 |
| 7 | New England Revolution II | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 41 | 38 | 42 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 39 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 41 | 39 |
| 10 | Huntsville City | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 43 | 38 |
| 11 | Orlando City II | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 46 | 50 | 38 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 38 | 36 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 40 | 47 | 33 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 48 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 29 | 57 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 57 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toronto FC II | FC Cincinnati II |
|---|---|---|
| New York City FC II | 2-0 W | 0-5 L |
| New York Red Bulls II | 1-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Chicago Fire II | 4-2 W | 2-7 L |
| CT United | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| New England Revolution II | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-4 | 2-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 27/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toronto FC II vs FC Cincinnati II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toronto FC II win (55%). Probabilities: Toronto FC II 55%, draw 22%, FC Cincinnati II 23%.
How many goals are expected in Toronto FC II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model expects 3.75 goals (Toronto FC II 2.28 · FC Cincinnati II 1.47), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Toronto FC II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.