Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 18/08, 17:00
Prediction: Atlanta United II vs Chicago Fire II
Team pages: Atlanta United II · Chicago Fire II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.11Total
Atlanta United II2.26
Chicago Fire II1.86
1X2
Atlanta United II
Draw
Chicago Fire II
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atlanta United II
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Chicago Fire II
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atlanta United II
4–2
Chicago Fire II
(6 last)
- Atlanta United II3-0Chicago Fire II
- Chicago Fire II0-3Atlanta United II
- Chicago Fire II2-5Atlanta United II
- Chicago Fire II2-0Atlanta United II
- Chicago Fire II2-1Atlanta United II
- Atlanta United II2-0Chicago Fire II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atlanta United II 1511 · Chicago Fire II 1521
| Atlanta United II | Draw | Chicago Fire II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 21% | 32% |
| Market | 46% | 23% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Atlanta United II: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atlanta United II | Chicago Fire II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.1 | 3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 6.9 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United II 4–0–2 Chicago Fire II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Chicago Fire II |
| 18/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Atlanta United II |
| 28/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-5 HT 1-3 | Atlanta United II |
| 28/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Atlanta United II |
| 04/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Atlanta United II |
| 23/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chicago Fire II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 54 | 30 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 32 | 44 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 28 | 42 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 42 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 38 |
| 6 | CT United | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 37 |
| 7 | Chicago Fire II | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 34 | 36 |
| 8 | Orlando City II | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 43 | 35 |
| 9 | Atlanta United II | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 36 | 34 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 33 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 32 | 33 |
| 12 | Huntsville City | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 42 | 32 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 42 | 30 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 48 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 21 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 51 | 8 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atlanta United II | Chicago Fire II |
|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls II | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Chattanooga FC | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Carolina Core FC | 3-3 D | 5-1 W |
| Huntsville City | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Inter Miami CF II | 4-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Toronto FC II | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Crown Legacy | 3-3 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire II (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atlanta United II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 31/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 6 | D |
Chicago Fire II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
4-2 | 7-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 06/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atlanta United II vs Chicago Fire II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United II win (46%). Probabilities: Atlanta United II 46%, draw 22%, Chicago Fire II 31%.
How many goals are expected in Atlanta United II vs Chicago Fire II?
The model expects 4.11 goals (Atlanta United II 2.26 · Chicago Fire II 1.86), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atlanta United II vs Chicago Fire II?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.