Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 24/08, 01:00
Prediction: New York Red Bulls II vs Toronto FC II
Team pages: New York Red Bulls II · Toronto FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.66Total
New York Red Bulls II2.28
Toronto FC II1.38
1X2
New York Red Bulls II
Draw
Toronto FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
New York Red Bulls II
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Toronto FC II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New York Red Bulls II
4–1–1
Toronto FC II
(6 last)
- New York Red Bulls II5-0Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II1-2New York Red Bulls II
- New York Red Bulls II2-1Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II2-2New York Red Bulls II
- New York Red Bulls II2-0Toronto FC II
- Toronto FC II4-3New York Red Bulls II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls II 1509 · Toronto FC II 1453
| New York Red Bulls II | Draw | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 21% | 22% |
| Market | 57% | 22% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York Red Bulls II (rating 1509 vs 1453).
- H2H favours New York Red Bulls II: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York Red Bulls II | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6 | 1.6 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls II 4–1–1 Toronto FC II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 08/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-2 HT 0-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 05/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 12/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 2-2 HT 2-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 22/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 28/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 4-3 HT 2-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 54 | 32 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 32 | 44 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew II | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 42 |
| 4 | New England Revolution II | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 34 | 42 |
| 5 | Atlanta United II | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 38 | 40 |
| 6 | CT United | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 39 | 40 |
| 7 | New York City FC II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 42 | 35 | 39 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 38 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 36 | 36 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 48 | 35 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 32 | 33 |
| 12 | Huntsville City | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 42 | 32 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 42 | 30 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 23 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 24 | 53 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 53 | 11 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New York Red Bulls II | Toronto FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United II | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| New England Revolution II | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| CT United | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Chicago Fire II | 0-3 L | 4-2 W |
| FC Cincinnati II | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Toronto FC II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 25/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 06/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
Toronto FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 13/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls II vs Toronto FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a New York Red Bulls II win (57%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls II 57%, draw 22%, Toronto FC II 22%.
How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls II vs Toronto FC II?
The model expects 3.66 goals (New York Red Bulls II 2.28 · Toronto FC II 1.38), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls II vs Toronto FC II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.