Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 25/08, 04:00

Prediction: Tacoma Defiance vs Sporting Kansas City II

Team pages: Tacoma Defiance · Sporting Kansas City II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Tacoma Defiance2.34

Sporting Kansas City II1.41

1X2

57% 21% 21%

Tacoma Defiance Draw Sporting Kansas City II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tacoma Defiance 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWWWLL

Sporting Kansas City II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWLDL

Head-to-head

Tacoma Defiance 4–2–0 Sporting Kansas City II (6 last)

Sporting Kansas City II2-2Tacoma Defiance
Sporting Kansas City II1-4Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance4-3Sporting Kansas City II
Tacoma Defiance3-1Sporting Kansas City II
Sporting Kansas City II2-2Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance1-0Sporting Kansas City II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tacoma Defiance 1535 · Sporting Kansas City II 1469

	Tacoma Defiance	Draw	Sporting Kansas City II
Our model	57%	21%	22%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tacoma Defiance (rating 1535 vs 1469).
H2H favours Tacoma Defiance: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tacoma Defiance	Sporting Kansas City II
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.7	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.71 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +2’	1.57	4.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +6’	1.71	4.00	3.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tacoma Defiance 4–2–0 Sporting Kansas City II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Sporting Kansas City II	2-2 HT 1-1	Tacoma Defiance
24/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Sporting Kansas City II	1-4 HT 1-3	Tacoma Defiance
08/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Tacoma Defiance	4-3 HT 1-3	Sporting Kansas City II
10/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Tacoma Defiance	3-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City II
16/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Sporting Kansas City II	2-2 HT 1-0	Tacoma Defiance
21/08/22 USA MLS Next Pro League	Tacoma Defiance	1-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City II

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Austin FC II	23	15	6	2	47	19	53
2	Portland Timbers II	23	13	6	4	31	24	48
3	Houston Dynamo II	22	13	4	5	46	22	46
4	Ventura County FC	22	11	5	6	45	28	41
5	Los Angeles FC II	23	10	8	5	39	36	41
6	St Louis City II	23	9	7	7	36	33	38
7	Tacoma Defiance	23	9	4	10	33	36	33
8	The Town	22	8	6	8	40	28	33
9	North Texas SC	23	7	8	8	34	34	33
10	Minnesota United FC II	23	8	5	10	31	36	31
11	Real Monarchs SLC	22	6	4	12	31	42	26
12	Sporting Kansas City II	23	5	4	14	30	57	20
13	Vancouver Whitecaps II	23	4	4	15	29	53	19
14	Colorado Rapids II	23	2	7	14	20	44	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tacoma Defiance	Sporting Kansas City II
Los Angeles FC II	3-4 L	1-2 L
North Texas SC	1-3 L	1-5 L
Colorado Rapids II	2-1 W	2-2 D
Real Monarchs SLC	4-2 W	3-1 W
The Town	1-0 W	1-6 L
Minnesota United FC II	2-2 D	1-0 W
Houston Dynamo II	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tacoma Defiance (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tacoma Defiance

WWDLWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	3-4	5	3	L
09/08	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-3	2	4	L
02/08	Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	4-2	4	4	W
27/07	Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
20/07	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	4-2	3	4	W
13/07	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
06/07	Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
29/06	Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
22/06	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/06	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W

Sporting Kansas City II

LLWLLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
16/08	Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-2	8	5	D
10/08	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
01/08	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-2	5	6	W
20/07	Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
08/07	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	1-3	1-6	3	2	L
22/06	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
30/05	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-1	4	6	W
23/05	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	0-3	7	8	L
17/05	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	1-5	12	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tacoma Defiance vs Sporting Kansas City II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tacoma Defiance win (57%). Probabilities: Tacoma Defiance 57%, draw 21%, Sporting Kansas City II 21%.

How many goals are expected in Tacoma Defiance vs Sporting Kansas City II?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Tacoma Defiance 2.34 · Sporting Kansas City II 1.41), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tacoma Defiance vs Sporting Kansas City II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.