Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 19/08, 23:00
Prediction: New York City FC II vs FC Cincinnati II
Team pages: New York City FC II · FC Cincinnati II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.43Total
New York City FC II2.23
FC Cincinnati II1.2
1X2
New York City FC II
Draw
FC Cincinnati II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
New York City FC II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
FC Cincinnati II
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New York City FC II
2–3–1
FC Cincinnati II
(6 last)
- New York City FC II2-0FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II1-0New York City FC II
- FC Cincinnati II2-2New York City FC II
- New York City FC II2-2FC Cincinnati II
- New York City FC II3-1FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II1-1New York City FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New York City FC II 1530 · FC Cincinnati II 1419
| New York City FC II | Draw | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York City FC II (rating 1530 vs 1419).
- H2H favours New York City FC II: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York City FC II | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5 | 2.8 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.6 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC II 2–3–1 FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 13/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | New York City FC II |
| 07/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | New York City FC II |
| 10/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 2-2 HT 0-2 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 30/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 08/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-1 HT 0-1 | New York City FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 54 | 30 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 43 | 32 | 44 |
| 3 | New England Revolution II | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 28 | 42 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 42 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 38 |
| 6 | Atlanta United II | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 37 |
| 7 | CT United | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 37 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire II | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 36 | 36 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 43 | 35 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 33 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 32 | 33 |
| 12 | Huntsville City | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 42 | 32 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 42 | 30 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 48 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 21 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 51 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New York City FC II | FC Cincinnati II |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew II | 2-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Orlando City II | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Philadelphia Union II | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| New England Revolution II | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| CT United | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: New York City FC II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York City FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 18/06 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-4 | 2-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 27/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 19/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New York City FC II vs FC Cincinnati II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC II win (60%). Probabilities: New York City FC II 60%, draw 21%, FC Cincinnati II 19%.
How many goals are expected in New York City FC II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model expects 3.43 goals (New York City FC II 2.23 · FC Cincinnati II 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in New York City FC II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.