Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 30/08, 18:00
Prediction: FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II
Team pages: FC Cincinnati II · Philadelphia Union II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.28Total
FC Cincinnati II1.53
Philadelphia Union II1.75
1X2
FC Cincinnati II
Draw
Philadelphia Union II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Cincinnati II
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Philadelphia Union II
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Cincinnati II
0–6
Philadelphia Union II
(6 last)
- Philadelphia Union II2-1FC Cincinnati II
- Philadelphia Union II1-0FC Cincinnati II
- Philadelphia Union II2-1FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II1-2Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II1-0FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II1-4Philadelphia Union II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Cincinnati II 1422 · Philadelphia Union II 1528
| FC Cincinnati II | Draw | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union II (rating 1422 vs 1528).
- H2H favours Philadelphia Union II: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Cincinnati II | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.7 | 1.5 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.4 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 5.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati II 0–0–6 Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 08/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 19/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 01/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 04/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 04/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Philadelphia Union II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 33 | 51 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 44 | 35 | 44 |
| 3 | CT United | 24 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 49 | 41 | 43 |
| 4 | Atlanta United II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 58 | 43 | 42 |
| 5 | New England Revolution II | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 34 | 42 |
| 6 | Columbus Crew II | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 41 | 36 | 42 |
| 7 | New York Red Bulls II | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 50 | 39 | 41 |
| 8 | New York City FC II | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 39 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 37 | 39 |
| 10 | Huntsville City | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 38 | 42 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando City II | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 48 | 35 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 30 | 36 | 33 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 40 | 47 | 33 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 43 | 26 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 24 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 27 | 54 | 19 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 26 | 62 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Cincinnati II | Philadelphia Union II |
|---|---|---|
| New York City FC II | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| CT United | 2-3 L | 2-4 L |
| New England Revolution II | 2-2 D | 4-3 W |
| Orlando City II | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| New York Red Bulls II | 2-2 D | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 19/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-4 | 2-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 27/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-4 | 2-4 | 3 | 12 | L |
| 17/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 26/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/07 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 29/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Philadelphia Union II win (42%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati II 33%, draw 25%, Philadelphia Union II 42%.
How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II?
The model expects 3.28 goals (FC Cincinnati II 1.53 · Philadelphia Union II 1.75), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati II vs Philadelphia Union II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.