Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 01/08, 01:00
Prediction: Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core FC
Team pages: Atlanta United II · Carolina Core FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.77Total
Atlanta United II2.47
Carolina Core FC1.3
1X2
Atlanta United II
Draw
Carolina Core FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atlanta United II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Carolina Core FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atlanta United II
2–2–2
Carolina Core FC
(6 last)
- Carolina Core FC1-2Atlanta United II
- Atlanta United II2-1Carolina Core FC
- Carolina Core FC4-2Atlanta United II
- Carolina Core FC1-1Atlanta United II
- Atlanta United II2-2Carolina Core FC
- Carolina Core FC4-1Atlanta United II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atlanta United II 1537 · Carolina Core FC 1469
| Atlanta United II | Draw | Carolina Core FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atlanta United II (rating 1537 vs 1469).
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atlanta United II | Carolina Core FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.9 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.5 / 7 | 2.1 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United II 2–2–2 Carolina Core FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Carolina Core FC | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Atlanta United II |
| 09/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Carolina Core FC |
| 14/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Carolina Core FC | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Atlanta United II |
| 20/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Carolina Core FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Atlanta United II |
| 24/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Carolina Core FC |
| 29/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Carolina Core FC | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Atlanta United II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 27 | 40 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew II | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 31 | 39 |
| 3 | Chattanooga FC | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 30 | 37 |
| 4 | New England Revolution II | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 36 |
| 5 | Orlando City II | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 34 | 35 |
| 6 | Atlanta United II | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 30 | 33 |
| 7 | New York Red Bulls II | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 32 |
| 8 | CT United | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 33 | 31 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 28 | 30 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 28 |
| 11 | Huntsville City | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 35 | 28 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 27 | 26 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 46 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atlanta United II | Carolina Core FC |
|---|---|---|
| New York City FC II | 3-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Huntsville City | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Inter Miami CF II | 4-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Crown Legacy | 3-3 D | 2-0 W |
| Chattanooga FC | 4-4 D | 1-1 D |
| Chicago Fire II | 3-0 W | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Carolina Core FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atlanta United II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 6-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
Carolina Core FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/07 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 06/07 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 08/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United II win (62%). Probabilities: Atlanta United II 62%, draw 20%, Carolina Core FC 18%.
How many goals are expected in Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core FC?
The model expects 3.77 goals (Atlanta United II 2.47 · Carolina Core FC 1.3), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atlanta United II vs Carolina Core FC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.