Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 02/08, 01:00
Prediction: New York City FC II vs Philadelphia Union II
Team pages: New York City FC II · Philadelphia Union II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.37Total
New York City FC II1.88
Philadelphia Union II1.49
1X2
New York City FC II
Draw
Philadelphia Union II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
New York City FC II
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Philadelphia Union II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New York City FC II
1–5
Philadelphia Union II
(6 last)
- Philadelphia Union II0-1New York City FC II
- Philadelphia Union II4-3New York City FC II
- New York City FC II0-2Philadelphia Union II
- New York City FC II1-4Philadelphia Union II
- Philadelphia Union II1-0New York City FC II
- Philadelphia Union II4-3New York City FC II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New York City FC II 1533 · Philadelphia Union II 1480
| New York City FC II | Draw | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York City FC II (rating 1533 vs 1480).
- H2H favours Philadelphia Union II: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York City FC II | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.3 | 1.3 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC II 1–0–5 Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 0-1 HT 0-0 | New York City FC II |
| 05/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 4-3 HT 2-2 | New York City FC II |
| 26/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 24/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 20/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | New York City FC II |
| 23/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 4-3 HT 2-3 | New York City FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 27 | 40 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew II | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 31 | 39 |
| 3 | Chattanooga FC | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 30 | 37 |
| 4 | New England Revolution II | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 36 |
| 5 | Orlando City II | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 34 | 35 |
| 6 | Atlanta United II | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 41 | 30 | 33 |
| 7 | New York Red Bulls II | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 32 |
| 8 | CT United | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 33 | 31 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 28 | 30 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 28 |
| 11 | Huntsville City | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 35 | 28 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 27 | 26 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 37 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 18 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 46 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New York City FC II | Philadelphia Union II |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United II | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| New England Revolution II | 0-3 L | 4-0 W |
| Crown Legacy | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Chattanooga FC | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| Columbus Crew II | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| New York Red Bulls II | 3-2 W | 0-5 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: New York City FC II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York City FC II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 18/06 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
Philadelphia Union II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/07 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 29/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 22/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 30/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New York City FC II vs Philadelphia Union II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC II win (46%). Probabilities: New York City FC II 46%, draw 24%, Philadelphia Union II 30%.
How many goals are expected in New York City FC II vs Philadelphia Union II?
The model expects 3.37 goals (New York City FC II 1.88 · Philadelphia Union II 1.49), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in New York City FC II vs Philadelphia Union II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.