Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 02/08, 22:00
Prediction: Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II
Team pages: Chicago Fire II · FC Cincinnati II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.38Total
Chicago Fire II2.21
FC Cincinnati II1.17
1X2
Chicago Fire II
Draw
FC Cincinnati II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chicago Fire II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
FC Cincinnati II
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chicago Fire II
3–2–1
FC Cincinnati II
(6 last)
- Chicago Fire II2-1FC Cincinnati II
- Chicago Fire II2-1FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II1-2Chicago Fire II
- Chicago Fire II1-1FC Cincinnati II
- FC Cincinnati II5-0Chicago Fire II
- FC Cincinnati II1-1Chicago Fire II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chicago Fire II 1552 · FC Cincinnati II 1414
| Chicago Fire II | Draw | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | 61% | 21% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chicago Fire II (rating 1552 vs 1414).
- H2H favours Chicago Fire II: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chicago Fire II | FC Cincinnati II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.5 | 0.8 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.1 | 3.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire II 3–2–1 FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-1 HT 0-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 09/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 30/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Chicago Fire II |
| 08/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 29/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Chicago Fire II |
| 17/03/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chicago Fire II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 27 | 40 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 40 | 30 | 40 |
| 3 | Columbus Crew II | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 31 | 39 |
| 4 | New England Revolution II | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 22 | 36 |
| 5 | Orlando City II | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 40 | 34 | 35 |
| 6 | Atlanta United II | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 43 | 34 |
| 7 | New York Red Bulls II | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 32 | 32 |
| 8 | CT United | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 33 | 31 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 28 | 30 |
| 10 | New York City FC II | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 28 |
| 11 | Huntsville City | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 35 | 28 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 27 | 26 |
| 13 | Toronto FC II | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 25 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 40 | 49 | 23 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 16 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 19 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 47 | 8 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chicago Fire II | FC Cincinnati II |
|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls II | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Chattanooga FC | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| New England Revolution II | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Inter Miami CF II | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire II (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chicago Fire II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/07 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 06/07 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 28/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 21/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 5 | L |
FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 13/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 29/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 19/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire II win (60%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire II 60%, draw 21%, FC Cincinnati II 18%.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model expects 3.38 goals (Chicago Fire II 2.21 · FC Cincinnati II 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire II vs FC Cincinnati II?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.