Prediction: Atlanta United II vs Toronto FC II
Expected goals: 4.03 (Atlanta United II 2.72 · Toronto FC II 1.31). The model gives 66% home, 18% draw, 15% away. Over 3.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Atlanta United II is 5-2-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Toronto FC II 4-1-5 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Atlanta United II won 5 and Toronto FC II 0, with 1 draw.
| Atlanta United II | Draw | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 15% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atlanta United II (rating 1545 vs 1458).
- H2H favours Atlanta United II: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atlanta United II | Toronto FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.7 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.4 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United II 5–1–0 Toronto FC II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Atlanta United II |
| 12/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Toronto FC II |
| 19/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atlanta United II |
| 29/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 01/09/18 USA USL Championship | Toronto FC II | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Atlanta United II |
| 17/05/18 USA USL Championship | Atlanta United II | 5-4 HT 3-2 | Toronto FC II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | Crown Legacy | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 32 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls II | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 22 | 31 |
| 4 | New England Revolution II | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 31 |
| 5 | Orlando City II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 30 | 29 |
| 6 | Chattanooga FC | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 28 |
| 7 | New York City FC II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 25 |
| 8 | Atlanta United II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 25 | 24 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 23 |
| 10 | Toronto FC II | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 31 | 22 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 21 | 21 |
| 12 | CT United | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 19 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 33 | 19 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 15 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 27 | 12 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 36 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atlanta United II | Toronto FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew II | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Philadelphia Union II | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Huntsville City | 6-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Toronto FC II (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atlanta United II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 22/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 6-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 11/05 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Toronto FC II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atlanta United II vs Toronto FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United II win (66%). Probabilities: Atlanta United II 66%, draw 18%, Toronto FC II 15%.
How many goals are expected in Atlanta United II vs Toronto FC II?
The model expects 4.03 goals (Atlanta United II 2.72 · Toronto FC II 1.31), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atlanta United II vs Toronto FC II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.