Prediction: FC Cincinnati II vs New York Red Bulls II
Expected goals: 3.39 (FC Cincinnati II 1.38 · New York Red Bulls II 2.02). The model gives 25% home, 23% draw, 52% away. Over 3.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, FC Cincinnati II sits at 3-0-7 (W-D-L), while New York Red Bulls II arrives on a 5-1-4 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, FC Cincinnati II won 3 and New York Red Bulls II 2, with 1 draw.
| FC Cincinnati II | Draw | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 23% | 51% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 52% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York Red Bulls II (rating 1448 vs 1512).
- H2H favours FC Cincinnati II: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Cincinnati II | New York Red Bulls II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.9 | 2.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.5 | 1.4 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.4 | 4.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati II 3–1–2 New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 02/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 30/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 3-3 HT 2-2 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 21/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 3-1 HT 2-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 19/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 1-4 HT 0-2 | FC Cincinnati II |
| 28/03/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | FC Cincinnati II | 2-3 HT 0-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 34 |
| 2 | Crown Legacy | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 32 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls II | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 22 | 31 |
| 4 | New England Revolution II | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 31 |
| 5 | Orlando City II | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 30 | 29 |
| 6 | Chattanooga FC | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 32 | 28 | 28 |
| 7 | New York City FC II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 23 | 25 |
| 8 | Atlanta United II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 25 | 24 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 23 |
| 10 | Toronto FC II | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 31 | 22 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 21 | 21 |
| 12 | CT United | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 28 | 19 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 33 | 19 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 17 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 15 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 13 | 27 | 12 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 14 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 36 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Cincinnati II | New York Red Bulls II |
|---|---|---|
| CT United | 0-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Columbus Crew II | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| New England Revolution II | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| New York City FC II | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Chattanooga FC | 1-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Toronto FC II | 5-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: New York Red Bulls II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Cincinnati II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 19/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
New York Red Bulls II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati II vs New York Red Bulls II?
According to our model, the most likely result is an New York Red Bulls II win (52%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati II 25%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls II 52%.
How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati II vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model expects 3.39 goals (FC Cincinnati II 1.38 · New York Red Bulls II 2.02), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati II vs New York Red Bulls II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.