Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 18/07, 10:00
Prediction: Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs Melbourne City FC 2
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Caroline Springs George Cross FC1.58
Melbourne City FC 21.58
1X2
Caroline Springs George Cross FC
Draw
Melbourne City FC 2
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Caroline Springs George Cross FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Melbourne City FC 2
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caroline Springs George Cross FC
0–1–0
Melbourne City FC 2
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Caroline Springs George Cross FC 1498 · Melbourne City FC 2 1550
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | Draw | Melbourne City FC 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melbourne City FC 2 (rating 1498 vs 1550).
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | Melbourne City FC 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.9 | 2.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.1 | 1.7 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caroline Springs George Cross FC 0–1–0 Melbourne City FC 2
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Melbourne City FC 2 | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Hume City | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 24 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 27 | 34 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 5 | Heidelberg Utd | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 26 | 32 |
| 6 | South Melbourne | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 23 |
| 10 | Dandenong City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 44 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | Melbourne City FC 2 |
|---|---|---|
| St Albans Saints | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Oakleigh Cannons | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Dandenong City | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Dandenong Thunder | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Green Gully | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Bentleigh Greens | 0-0 D | 7-0 W |
| South Melbourne | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Hume City | 2-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 4 D 1 L | 5 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Melbourne City FC 2 (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caroline Springs George Cross FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 20/06 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
3-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 27/05 | Preston Lions Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-6 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 22/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 18/05 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
2-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
Melbourne City FC 2
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 04/07 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/06 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 08/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
6-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 01/05 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs Melbourne City FC 2?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Caroline Springs George Cross FC win (37%). Probabilities: Caroline Springs George Cross FC 37%, draw 25%, Melbourne City FC 2 37%.
How many goals are expected in Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs Melbourne City FC 2?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Caroline Springs George Cross FC 1.58 · Melbourne City FC 2 1.58), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs Melbourne City FC 2?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.