Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 24/07, 11:30

Prediction: St Albans Saints vs Hume City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

St Albans Saints1.12

Hume City1.82

1X2

23% 24% 53%

St Albans Saints Draw Hume City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St Albans Saints 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Hume City 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

St Albans Saints 2–4 Hume City (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Albans Saints 1472 · Hume City 1553

	St Albans Saints	Draw	Hume City
Our model	22%	25%	53%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hume City (rating 1472 vs 1553).
H2H favours Hume City: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Albans Saints	Hume City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.6	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:05 +1’	3.80	4.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Albans Saints 2–0–4 Hume City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	0-1 HT 0-1	St Albans Saints
23/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria	St Albans Saints	0-4 HT 0-1	Hume City
10/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	3-2 HT 1-1	St Albans Saints
23/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria	St Albans Saints	0-3 HT 0-3	Hume City
16/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	2-1 HT 0-0	St Albans Saints
11/06/23 Australia Victoria Premier League	St Albans Saints	3-0 HT 0-0	Hume City

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	21	14	5	2	44	18	47
2	Hume City	21	12	4	5	40	25	40
3	Avondale	21	11	2	8	54	28	35
4	Preston Lions	20	12	3	5	30	16	33
5	Heidelberg Utd	21	9	6	6	33	26	33
6	South Melbourne	21	10	2	9	31	32	32
7	Melbourne City FC 2	20	8	6	6	37	23	30
8	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	21	7	9	5	28	28	30
9	St Albans Saints	21	6	6	9	24	37	24
10	Altona Magic	21	6	5	10	24	36	23
11	Dandenong City	21	7	5	9	27	29	22
12	Bentleigh Greens	21	5	4	12	20	45	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	21	4	3	14	23	46	15
14	Green Gully	21	3	4	14	17	43	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Albans Saints	Hume City
Avondale	1-1 D	3-0 W
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-2 D	4-2 W
Altona Magic	2-1 W	3-1 W
Oakleigh Cannons	2-2 D	0-1 L
Preston Lions	0-1 L	1-2 L
Dandenong City	1-2 L	0-0 D
Dandenong Thunder	2-2 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hume City (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St Albans Saints

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
03/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
26/06	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	12	3	L
21/06	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
05/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
31/05	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
22/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-2	3	0	L
16/05	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-2	12	2	D
12/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	0-2	9	2	L

Hume City

WWWDWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
10/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
04/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
27/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
20/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
05/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	8	0	W
30/05	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
23/05	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
16/05	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
09/05	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	3-2	4-2	2	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Albans Saints vs Hume City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hume City win (53%). Probabilities: St Albans Saints 23%, draw 24%, Hume City 53%.

How many goals are expected in St Albans Saints vs Hume City?

The model expects 2.94 goals (St Albans Saints 1.12 · Hume City 1.82), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St Albans Saints vs Hume City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.