Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 24/07, 12:30

Prediction: Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Preston Lions2.11

Bentleigh Greens0.7

1X2

69% 20% 11%

Preston Lions Draw Bentleigh Greens

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Preston Lions 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWWD

Bentleigh Greens 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLLLLW

Head-to-head

Preston Lions 1–1–1 Bentleigh Greens (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston Lions 1589 · Bentleigh Greens 1396

	Preston Lions	Draw	Bentleigh Greens
Our model	69%	21%	10%
Market	70%	19%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1589 vs 1396).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston Lions	Bentleigh Greens
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.1	0.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.8	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X4.75

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.28▲	Bet365 1.28
X	5.25 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75
2	9.50 → 8.00▼	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:53 +13’	1.22	5.25	9.50
07:48 +18’	1.28▲	4.75▼	8.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston Lions 1–1–1 Bentleigh Greens

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Bentleigh Greens	1-1 HT 0-0	Preston Lions
21/06/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Preston Lions	2-1 HT 1-0	Bentleigh Greens
15/03/24 Australia Victoria Premier League 1	Bentleigh Greens	3-2 HT 1-1	Preston Lions

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	21	14	5	2	44	18	47
2	Hume City	21	12	4	5	40	25	40
3	Avondale	21	11	2	8	54	28	35
4	Preston Lions	20	12	3	5	30	16	33
5	Heidelberg Utd	21	9	6	6	33	26	33
6	South Melbourne	21	10	2	9	31	32	32
7	Melbourne City FC 2	20	8	6	6	37	23	30
8	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	21	7	9	5	28	28	30
9	St Albans Saints	21	6	6	9	24	37	24
10	Altona Magic	21	6	5	10	24	36	23
11	Dandenong City	21	7	5	9	27	29	22
12	Bentleigh Greens	21	5	4	12	20	45	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	21	4	3	14	23	46	15
14	Green Gully	21	3	4	14	17	43	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston Lions	Bentleigh Greens
South Melbourne	0-0 D	1-5 L
Hume City	2-1 W	1-5 L
Avondale	3-2 W	0-4 L
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Heidelberg Utd	1-0 W	0-2 L
Altona Magic	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Preston Lions (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Preston Lions

LLWWWWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
07/07	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Cup	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
04/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	3-2	6	5	W
27/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
31/05	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
27/05	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	6-0	8	0	W
24/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
16/05	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	7	1	L

Bentleigh Greens

DDLLLLLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
11/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-2	8	2	L
03/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
26/06	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
19/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-3	1-5	4	2	L
05/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-3	1-5	9	0	L
30/05	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
26/05	Heidelberg Utd Australia Cup Qualifying	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
22/05	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
15/05	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-2	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Preston Lions win (69%). Probabilities: Preston Lions 69%, draw 20%, Bentleigh Greens 11%.

How many goals are expected in Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Preston Lions 2.11 · Bentleigh Greens 0.7), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.