Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 25/07, 09:00

Prediction: Dandenong Thunder vs Altona Magic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Dandenong Thunder1.37

Altona Magic2.2

1X2

22% 22% 55%

Dandenong Thunder Draw Altona Magic

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dandenong Thunder 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Altona Magic 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWLWD

Head-to-head

Dandenong Thunder 5–1 Altona Magic (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dandenong Thunder 1425 · Altona Magic 1473

	Dandenong Thunder	Draw	Altona Magic
Our model	22%	22%	55%
Market	22%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Altona Magic (rating 1425 vs 1473).
H2H favours Dandenong Thunder: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dandenong Thunder	Altona Magic
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 3.2	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:04 +4’	4.00	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dandenong Thunder 5–0–1 Altona Magic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	2-4 HT 0-3	Dandenong Thunder
07/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	6-0 HT 3-0	Altona Magic
16/04/25 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying	Dandenong Thunder	3-2 HT 3-0	Altona Magic
01/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	0-1 HT 0-0	Dandenong Thunder
08/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	0-4 HT 0-1	Altona Magic
02/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	2-3 HT 2-1	Dandenong Thunder

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	21	14	5	2	44	18	47
2	Hume City	21	12	4	5	40	25	40
3	Avondale	21	11	2	8	54	28	35
4	Preston Lions	20	12	3	5	30	16	33
5	Heidelberg Utd	21	9	6	6	33	26	33
6	South Melbourne	21	10	2	9	31	32	32
7	Melbourne City FC 2	20	8	6	6	37	23	30
8	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	21	7	9	5	28	28	30
9	St Albans Saints	21	6	6	9	24	37	24
10	Altona Magic	21	6	5	10	24	36	23
11	Dandenong City	21	7	5	9	27	29	22
12	Bentleigh Greens	21	5	4	12	20	45	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	21	4	3	14	23	46	15
14	Green Gully	21	3	4	14	17	43	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dandenong Thunder	Altona Magic
Green Gully	1-3 L	3-1 W
Bentleigh Greens	2-1 W	1-0 W
South Melbourne	0-1 L	3-2 W
Hume City	1-3 L	1-3 L
Avondale	0-11 L	1-5 L
Heidelberg Utd	2-4 L	0-0 D
Melbourne City FC 2	0-2 L	0-3 L
St Albans Saints	2-2 D	1-2 L
Oakleigh Cannons	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 7 L	3 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Altona Magic (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dandenong Thunder

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
11/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
05/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
27/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	0	2	L
20/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	0-11	3	2	L
06/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-3	4	7	L
29/05	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-4	4	2	L
24/05	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
16/05	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
08/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-2	5	0	L

Altona Magic

LWLLWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
10/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	4	8	W
04/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
26/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
21/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
07/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
23/05	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
16/05	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
09/05	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	1-5	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dandenong Thunder vs Altona Magic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Altona Magic win (55%). Probabilities: Dandenong Thunder 22%, draw 22%, Altona Magic 55%.

How many goals are expected in Dandenong Thunder vs Altona Magic?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Dandenong Thunder 1.37 · Altona Magic 2.2), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dandenong Thunder vs Altona Magic?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.