Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 25/07, 07:00

Prediction: Melbourne City FC 2 vs Avondale

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Melbourne City FC 21.38

Avondale2.22

1X2

22% 22% 55%

Melbourne City FC 2 Draw Avondale

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne City FC 2 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Avondale 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melbourne City FC 2 0–1 Avondale (1 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne City FC 2 1540 · Avondale 1508

	Melbourne City FC 2	Draw	Avondale
Our model	23%	22%	56%
Market	22%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melbourne City FC 2	Avondale
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	2.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.02

2 (-0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:07 +1’	4.00	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne City FC 2 0–0–1 Avondale

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	3-1 HT 1-0	Melbourne City FC 2

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	21	14	5	2	44	18	47
2	Hume City	21	12	4	5	40	25	40
3	Avondale	21	11	2	8	54	28	35
4	Preston Lions	20	12	3	5	30	16	33
5	Heidelberg Utd	21	9	6	6	33	26	33
6	South Melbourne	21	10	2	9	31	32	32
7	Melbourne City FC 2	20	8	6	6	37	23	30
8	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	21	7	9	5	28	28	30
9	St Albans Saints	21	6	6	9	24	37	24
10	Altona Magic	21	6	5	10	24	36	23
11	Dandenong City	21	7	5	9	27	29	22
12	Bentleigh Greens	21	5	4	12	20	45	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	21	4	3	14	23	46	15
14	Green Gully	21	3	4	14	17	43	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne City FC 2	Avondale
St Albans Saints	2-0 W	1-1 D
Oakleigh Cannons	1-3 L	0-2 L
Dandenong City	0-1 L	1-3 L
Dandenong Thunder	2-0 W	11-0 W
Green Gully	3-1 W	2-0 W
Bentleigh Greens	7-0 W	4-0 W
South Melbourne	2-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne City FC 2 (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Melbourne City FC 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
11/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	0	6	D
04/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
26/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
30/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/05	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
08/05	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	6-0	7-0	8	1	W
01/05	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	2	5	W

Avondale

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
10/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
04/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-3	9	5	L
26/06	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
20/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	3-0	11-0	9	2	W
10/06	Midleton FC Republic of Ireland Munster Senior League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
05/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
02/06	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying	0-1	2-3	2	4	L
30/05	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-0	9	2	W
25/05	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne City FC 2 vs Avondale?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Avondale win (55%). Probabilities: Melbourne City FC 2 22%, draw 22%, Avondale 55%.

How many goals are expected in Melbourne City FC 2 vs Avondale?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Melbourne City FC 2 1.38 · Avondale 2.22), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Melbourne City FC 2 vs Avondale?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.