Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 24/07, 12:15

Prediction: Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Oakleigh Cannons1.78

South Melbourne0.97

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Oakleigh Cannons Draw South Melbourne

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Oakleigh Cannons 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWWDWW

South Melbourne 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLWWD

Head-to-head

Oakleigh Cannons 5–1–0 South Melbourne (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oakleigh Cannons 1626 · South Melbourne 1457

	Oakleigh Cannons	Draw	South Melbourne
Our model	55%	25%	19%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oakleigh Cannons (rating 1626 vs 1457).
H2H favours Oakleigh Cannons: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oakleigh Cannons	South Melbourne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.6	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	3.7 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.75▲	Bet365 1.75
X	4.00 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75
2	4.33 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:05 +1’	1.57	4.00	4.33
14:07 +3’	1.75▲	3.75▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Oakleigh Cannons 5–1–0 South Melbourne

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	0-3 HT 0-1	Oakleigh Cannons
23/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Oakleigh Cannons	3-0 HT 1-0	South Melbourne
11/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	1-2 HT 0-1	Oakleigh Cannons
07/09/24 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	0-1 HT 0-0	Oakleigh Cannons
03/08/24 Australia Victoria Cup	Oakleigh Cannons	0-0 HT 0-0	South Melbourne
30/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	1-2 HT 0-1	Oakleigh Cannons

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	21	14	5	2	44	18	47
2	Hume City	21	12	4	5	40	25	40
3	Avondale	21	11	2	8	54	28	35
4	Preston Lions	20	12	3	5	30	16	33
5	Heidelberg Utd	21	9	6	6	33	26	33
6	South Melbourne	21	10	2	9	31	32	32
7	Melbourne City FC 2	20	8	6	6	37	23	30
8	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	21	7	9	5	28	28	30
9	St Albans Saints	21	6	6	9	24	37	24
10	Altona Magic	21	6	5	10	24	36	23
11	Dandenong City	21	7	5	9	27	29	22
12	Bentleigh Greens	21	5	4	12	20	45	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	21	4	3	14	23	46	15
14	Green Gully	21	3	4	14	17	43	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oakleigh Cannons	South Melbourne
Hume City	1-0 W	1-1 D
Avondale	2-0 W	0-4 L
Altona Magic	2-0 W	2-3 L
Preston Lions	1-0 W	0-0 D
Dandenong City	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Oakleigh Cannons (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Oakleigh Cannons

DWDWDWWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
10/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
04/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
19/06	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
30/05	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
27/05	Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
24/05	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
15/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	4	3	D

South Melbourne

WLLDLWLWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
05/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
28/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
19/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	10	2	W
07/06	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	2-3	6	2	L
30/05	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
25/05	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
24/05	Auckland FC II OFC Pro League	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
20/05	Vanuatu United OFC Pro League	3-0	4-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oakleigh Cannons win (56%). Probabilities: Oakleigh Cannons 56%, draw 24%, South Melbourne 20%.

How many goals are expected in Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Oakleigh Cannons 1.78 · South Melbourne 0.97), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Oakleigh Cannons vs South Melbourne?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.