Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 15/08, 07:00

Prediction: Melbourne City FC 2 vs South Melbourne

Team pages: Melbourne City FC 2 · South Melbourne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Melbourne City FC 21.08

South Melbourne1.86

1X2

21% 24% 55%

Melbourne City FC 2 Draw South Melbourne

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne City FC 2 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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South Melbourne 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melbourne City FC 2 1–0 South Melbourne (1 last)

South Melbourne1-2Melbourne City FC 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne City FC 2 1503 · South Melbourne 1541

	Melbourne City FC 2	Draw	South Melbourne
Our model	21%	25%	54%
Market	22%	23%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melbourne City FC 2	South Melbourne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	3.4 / 8.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.90

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.02

2 (-0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:17 +2’	4.10	3.90	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne City FC 2 1–0–0 South Melbourne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	1-2 HT 1-1	Melbourne City FC 2

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	23	14	6	3	45	20	48
2	Hume City	23	13	4	6	43	28	43
3	Avondale	23	13	2	8	59	31	41
4	South Melbourne	23	12	2	9	35	33	38
5	Preston Lions	22	13	4	5	33	18	37
6	Heidelberg Utd	23	9	7	7	34	28	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	23	7	11	5	29	29	32
8	Melbourne City FC 2	22	8	6	8	39	27	30
9	Altona Magic	23	7	6	10	27	37	27
10	St Albans Saints	23	7	6	10	27	41	27
11	Dandenong City	23	8	6	9	30	29	26
12	Bentleigh Greens	23	5	5	13	20	46	20
13	Green Gully	23	3	6	14	19	45	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	23	4	3	16	23	51	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne City FC 2	South Melbourne
Altona Magic	3-0 W	2-3 L
St Albans Saints	2-0 W	2-0 W
Oakleigh Cannons	1-3 L	2-1 W
Dandenong City	0-1 L	2-0 W
Dandenong Thunder	2-0 W	1-0 W
Green Gully	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne City FC 2 (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Melbourne City FC 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
25/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-3	3	5	L
18/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
11/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	0	6	D
04/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
26/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
30/05	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/05	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	3-1	8	3	W

South Melbourne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Fremantle City FC Australia Cup	2-2	3-3	21	3	D
02/08	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
30/07	Adelaide United Australia Cup	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
24/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
18/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
05/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
28/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
19/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	10	2	W
07/06	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	2-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne City FC 2 vs South Melbourne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an South Melbourne win (55%). Probabilities: Melbourne City FC 2 21%, draw 24%, South Melbourne 55%.

How many goals are expected in Melbourne City FC 2 vs South Melbourne?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Melbourne City FC 2 1.08 · South Melbourne 1.86), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Melbourne City FC 2 vs South Melbourne?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.