Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 22/08, 11:00

Prediction: Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons

Team pages: Dandenong Thunder · Oakleigh Cannons

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Dandenong Thunder0.66

Oakleigh Cannons2.66

1X2

7% 13% 80%

Dandenong Thunder Draw Oakleigh Cannons

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Dandenong Thunder 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLLLL

Oakleigh Cannons 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWWLDW

Head-to-head

Dandenong Thunder 1–2–3 Oakleigh Cannons (6 last)

Oakleigh Cannons2-0Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder3-3Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons3-1Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder3-1Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons1-1Dandenong Thunder
Oakleigh Cannons2-1Dandenong Thunder

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dandenong Thunder 1380 · Oakleigh Cannons 1567

	Dandenong Thunder	Draw	Oakleigh Cannons
Our model	6%	15%	79%
Market	7%	12%	81%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oakleigh Cannons (rating 1380 vs 1567).
H2H favours Oakleigh Cannons: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dandenong Thunder	Oakleigh Cannons
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 3.4	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

113.00

X7.50

21.13

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.95

2 (-2.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +7’	13.00	7.50	1.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dandenong Thunder 1–2–3 Oakleigh Cannons

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Oakleigh Cannons	2-0 HT 0-0	Dandenong Thunder
05/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	3-3 HT 3-1	Oakleigh Cannons
28/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Oakleigh Cannons	3-1 HT 3-0	Dandenong Thunder
15/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	3-1 HT 2-0	Oakleigh Cannons
01/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Oakleigh Cannons	1-1 HT 1-1	Dandenong Thunder
02/06/23 Australia Victoria Premier League	Oakleigh Cannons	2-1 HT 0-0	Dandenong Thunder

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	24	15	6	3	49	21	51
2	Hume City	24	14	4	6	48	32	46
3	Avondale	24	13	2	9	61	34	41
4	South Melbourne	24	13	2	9	38	33	41
5	Preston Lions	23	14	4	5	36	18	37
6	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	24	8	11	5	32	31	35
7	Heidelberg Utd	24	9	7	8	38	33	34
8	Melbourne City FC 2	23	8	6	9	39	30	30
9	Dandenong City	24	9	6	9	32	29	29
10	St Albans Saints	24	7	7	10	28	42	28
11	Altona Magic	24	7	6	11	27	39	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	24	5	6	13	21	47	21
13	Green Gully	24	3	6	15	20	49	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	24	4	3	17	23	54	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dandenong Thunder	Oakleigh Cannons
Altona Magic	0-2 L	2-0 W
Green Gully	1-3 L	4-1 W
Bentleigh Greens	2-1 W	0-0 D
South Melbourne	0-1 L	1-2 L
Hume City	1-3 L	1-0 W
Avondale	0-11 L	2-0 W
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-3 L	1-1 D
Heidelberg Utd	2-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Oakleigh Cannons (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dandenong Thunder

LLLLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
01/08	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
25/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
17/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
11/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
05/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
27/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	0	2	L
20/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	0-11	3	2	L
06/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-3	4	7	L
29/05	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-4	4	2	L

Oakleigh Cannons

WDWWDWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-1	3	1	W
31/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
24/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	1	1	L
18/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
10/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
04/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
19/06	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
30/05	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Oakleigh Cannons win (80%). Probabilities: Dandenong Thunder 7%, draw 13%, Oakleigh Cannons 80%.

How many goals are expected in Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Dandenong Thunder 0.66 · Oakleigh Cannons 2.66), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dandenong Thunder vs Oakleigh Cannons?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.