Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 22/08, 07:15

Prediction: Altona Magic vs Avondale

Team pages: Altona Magic · Avondale

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Altona Magic1.24

Avondale2.28

1X2

19% 21% 60%

Altona Magic Draw Avondale

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Altona Magic 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDWDL

Avondale 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLDWWL

Head-to-head

Altona Magic 1–5 Avondale (6 last)

Avondale5-1Altona Magic
Altona Magic0-1Avondale
Avondale4-0Altona Magic
Altona Magic1-0Avondale
Avondale4-0Altona Magic
Altona Magic2-5Avondale

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Altona Magic 1489 · Avondale 1515

	Altona Magic	Draw	Avondale
Our model	19%	21%	60%
Market	19%	21%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Avondale: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Altona Magic	Avondale
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	1.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.20

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.95

2 (-1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:16	4.75	4.20	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Altona Magic 1–0–5 Avondale

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	5-1 HT 2-1	Altona Magic
26/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	0-1 HT 0-0	Avondale
12/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	4-0 HT 2-0	Altona Magic
06/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	1-0 HT 1-0	Avondale
06/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Avondale	4-0 HT 2-0	Altona Magic
27/05/23 Australia Victoria Premier League	Altona Magic	2-5 HT 0-1	Avondale

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	24	15	6	3	49	21	51
2	Hume City	24	14	4	6	48	32	46
3	Avondale	24	13	2	9	61	34	41
4	South Melbourne	24	13	2	9	38	33	41
5	Preston Lions	23	14	4	5	36	18	37
6	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	24	8	11	5	32	31	35
7	Heidelberg Utd	24	9	7	8	38	33	34
8	Melbourne City FC 2	23	8	6	9	39	30	30
9	Dandenong City	24	9	6	9	32	29	29
10	St Albans Saints	24	7	7	10	28	42	28
11	Altona Magic	24	7	6	11	27	39	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	24	5	6	13	21	47	21
13	Green Gully	24	3	6	15	20	49	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	24	4	3	17	23	54	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Altona Magic	Avondale
Dandenong City	0-2 L	1-3 L
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Dandenong Thunder	2-0 W	11-0 W
Heidelberg Utd	0-0 D	2-1 W
Green Gully	3-1 W	2-0 W
Melbourne City FC 2	0-3 L	3-2 W
St Albans Saints	1-2 L	1-1 D
Oakleigh Cannons	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Avondale (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Altona Magic

LWLWLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
01/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
25/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
18/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
10/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	4	8	W
04/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
26/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
21/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
07/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	4	2	L

Avondale

WLWLLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-3	7	5	L
01/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	3-2	8	5	W
18/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
10/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
04/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-3	9	5	L
26/06	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
20/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	3-0	11-0	9	2	W
10/06	Midleton FC Republic of Ireland Munster Senior League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
05/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Altona Magic vs Avondale?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Avondale win (60%). Probabilities: Altona Magic 19%, draw 21%, Avondale 60%.

How many goals are expected in Altona Magic vs Avondale?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Altona Magic 1.24 · Avondale 2.28), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Altona Magic vs Avondale?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.