Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 23/08, 07:30

Prediction: South Melbourne vs Heidelberg Utd

Team pages: South Melbourne · Heidelberg Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

South Melbourne1.56

Heidelberg Utd1.38

1X2

41% 27% 33%

South Melbourne Draw Heidelberg Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

South Melbourne 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWWDW

Heidelberg Utd 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDLLDL

Head-to-head

South Melbourne 3–1–2 Heidelberg Utd (6 last)

Heidelberg Utd4-0South Melbourne
South Melbourne1-0Heidelberg Utd
Heidelberg Utd1-2South Melbourne
Heidelberg Utd1-1South Melbourne
South Melbourne0-3Heidelberg Utd
Heidelberg Utd1-2South Melbourne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Melbourne 1565 · Heidelberg Utd 1487

	South Melbourne	Draw	Heidelberg Utd
Our model	41%	27%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Melbourne (rating 1565 vs 1487).
H2H favours South Melbourne: 3-1-2.
High corners: 14.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Melbourne	Heidelberg Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 8.4	3.5 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 2.20▲	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:49 +1’	1.85	3.50	3.40
02:16 +2’	2.20▲	3.40▼	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne 3–1–2 Heidelberg Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	4-0 HT 3-0	South Melbourne
29/11/25 Australia Championship	South Melbourne	1-0 HT 0-0	Heidelberg Utd
09/08/25 Australia Victoria Cup	Heidelberg Utd	1-2 HT 1-0	South Melbourne
26/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	1-1 HT 0-1	South Melbourne
13/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	0-3 HT 0-0	Heidelberg Utd
03/07/24 Australia Victoria Cup	Heidelberg Utd	1-2 HT 0-0	South Melbourne

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	24	15	6	3	49	21	51
2	Hume City	24	14	4	6	48	32	46
3	Avondale	24	13	2	9	61	34	41
4	South Melbourne	24	13	2	9	38	33	41
5	Preston Lions	23	14	4	5	36	18	37
6	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	24	8	11	5	32	31	35
7	Heidelberg Utd	24	9	7	8	38	33	34
8	Melbourne City FC 2	23	8	6	9	39	30	30
9	Dandenong City	24	9	6	9	32	29	29
10	St Albans Saints	24	7	7	10	28	42	28
11	Altona Magic	24	7	6	11	27	39	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	24	5	6	13	21	47	21
13	Green Gully	24	3	6	15	20	49	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	24	4	3	17	23	54	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Melbourne	Heidelberg Utd
Melbourne City FC 2	3-0 W	2-2 D
St Albans Saints	2-0 W	1-1 D
Preston Lions	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

South Melbourne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
09/08	Fremantle City FC Australia Cup	2-2	3-3	21	3	D
02/08	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
30/07	Adelaide United Australia Cup	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
24/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
18/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
05/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
28/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
19/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	10	2	W

Heidelberg Utd

WDDDWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	4-5	11	3	L
12/08	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
08/08	Preston Lions Australia Victoria Cup	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
01/08	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
24/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
21/07	Cumberland United Australia Cup	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
18/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
11/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
03/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/06	Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	2-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Melbourne vs Heidelberg Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Melbourne win (41%). Probabilities: South Melbourne 41%, draw 27%, Heidelberg Utd 33%.

How many goals are expected in South Melbourne vs Heidelberg Utd?

The model expects 2.94 goals (South Melbourne 1.56 · Heidelberg Utd 1.38), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in South Melbourne vs Heidelberg Utd?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.