Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 29/08, 07:00

Prediction: Melbourne City FC 2 vs Green Gully

Team pages: Melbourne City FC 2 · Green Gully

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Melbourne City FC 21.81

Green Gully1.56

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Melbourne City FC 2 Draw Green Gully

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Melbourne City FC 2 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Green Gully 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Melbourne City FC 2 1–0 Green Gully (1 last)

Green Gully1-3Melbourne City FC 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Melbourne City FC 2 1448 · Green Gully 1455

	Melbourne City FC 2	Draw	Green Gully
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Melbourne City FC 2	Green Gully
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	1.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:10 +1’	2.10	3.60	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Melbourne City FC 2 1–0–0 Green Gully

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Green Gully	1-3 HT 1-1	Melbourne City FC 2

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	25	16	6	3	54	21	54
2	Hume City	25	15	4	6	51	34	49
3	Avondale	25	14	2	9	63	34	44
4	Preston Lions	25	15	5	5	40	18	41
5	South Melbourne	25	13	2	10	39	35	41
6	Heidelberg Utd	25	10	7	8	40	34	37
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	25	8	11	6	34	34	35
8	St Albans Saints	25	8	7	10	30	43	31
9	Dandenong City	25	9	7	9	32	29	30
10	Melbourne City FC 2	25	8	6	11	41	40	30
11	Altona Magic	25	7	6	12	27	41	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	25	6	6	13	27	49	24
13	Green Gully	25	3	6	16	21	51	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	25	4	3	18	23	59	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Melbourne City FC 2	Green Gully
Bentleigh Greens	2-6 L	3-0 W
Preston Lions	0-4 L	2-2 D
South Melbourne	0-3 L	2-1 W
Hume City	0-1 L	2-3 L
Avondale	2-3 L	0-2 L
Altona Magic	3-0 W	1-3 L
St Albans Saints	2-0 W	1-2 L
Oakleigh Cannons	1-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Melbourne City FC 2 (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Melbourne City FC 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	2-6	4	2	L
19/08	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-4	7	3	L
15/08	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
01/08	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
25/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-3	3	5	L
18/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
11/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	0	6	D
04/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
26/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	5	3	L

Green Gully

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
14/08	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-4	5	1	L
31/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	2-2	2	0	D
24/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
17/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
10/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
03/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
28/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
20/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-3	4	4	L
05/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Melbourne City FC 2 vs Green Gully?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Melbourne City FC 2 win (43%). Probabilities: Melbourne City FC 2 43%, draw 25%, Green Gully 32%.

How many goals are expected in Melbourne City FC 2 vs Green Gully?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Melbourne City FC 2 1.81 · Green Gully 1.56), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Melbourne City FC 2 vs Green Gully?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.