Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 14/08, 12:15

Prediction: Oakleigh Cannons vs Green Gully

Team pages: Oakleigh Cannons · Green Gully

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Oakleigh Cannons2.22

Green Gully0.66

1X2

74% 16% 10%

Oakleigh Cannons Draw Green Gully

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Oakleigh Cannons 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDWWLD

Green Gully 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWLWDD

Head-to-head

Oakleigh Cannons 4–1–1 Green Gully (6 last)

Green Gully0-5Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons3-1Green Gully
Green Gully1-1Oakleigh Cannons
Green Gully4-2Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons4-1Green Gully
Green Gully1-2Oakleigh Cannons

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oakleigh Cannons 1564 · Green Gully 1470

	Oakleigh Cannons	Draw	Green Gully
Our model	72%	19%	9%
Market	75%	14%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oakleigh Cannons (rating 1564 vs 1470).
H2H favours Oakleigh Cannons: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oakleigh Cannons	Green Gully
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.50

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.80

2 (+1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +14’	1.20	6.50	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Oakleigh Cannons 4–1–1 Green Gully

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Green Gully	0-5 HT 0-2	Oakleigh Cannons
23/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Oakleigh Cannons	3-1 HT 1-0	Green Gully
14/02/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Green Gully	1-1 HT 0-0	Oakleigh Cannons
22/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Green Gully	4-2 HT 3-0	Oakleigh Cannons
15/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Oakleigh Cannons	4-1 HT 3-0	Green Gully
19/05/23 Australia Victoria Premier League	Green Gully	1-2 HT 1-1	Oakleigh Cannons

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	23	14	6	3	45	20	48
2	Hume City	23	13	4	6	43	28	43
3	Avondale	23	13	2	8	59	31	41
4	South Melbourne	23	12	2	9	35	33	38
5	Preston Lions	22	13	4	5	33	18	37
6	Heidelberg Utd	23	9	7	7	34	28	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	23	7	11	5	29	29	32
8	Melbourne City FC 2	22	8	6	8	39	27	30
9	Altona Magic	23	7	6	10	27	37	27
10	St Albans Saints	23	7	6	10	27	41	27
11	Dandenong City	23	8	6	9	30	29	26
12	Bentleigh Greens	23	5	5	13	20	46	20
13	Green Gully	23	3	6	14	19	45	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	23	4	3	16	23	51	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oakleigh Cannons	Green Gully
Bentleigh Greens	0-0 D	3-0 W
South Melbourne	1-2 L	2-1 W
Hume City	1-0 W	2-3 L
Avondale	2-0 W	0-2 L
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Heidelberg Utd	1-0 W	0-1 L
Altona Magic	2-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Oakleigh Cannons (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Oakleigh Cannons

DWDWWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
24/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	1	1	L
18/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
10/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
04/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
19/06	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
05/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
30/05	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
27/05	Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying	1-1	1-1	4	4	D

Green Gully

LDLLWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	2-2	2	0	D
24/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
17/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
10/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
03/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
28/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
20/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-3	4	4	L
05/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
30/05	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
22/05	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oakleigh Cannons vs Green Gully?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oakleigh Cannons win (74%). Probabilities: Oakleigh Cannons 74%, draw 16%, Green Gully 10%.

How many goals are expected in Oakleigh Cannons vs Green Gully?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Oakleigh Cannons 2.22 · Green Gully 0.66), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Oakleigh Cannons vs Green Gully?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.