Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 17/07, 11:30
Prediction: Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
Green Gully1.63
Dandenong Thunder1.32
1X2
Green Gully
Draw
Dandenong Thunder
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Green Gully
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Dandenong Thunder
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Green Gully
1–4–1
Dandenong Thunder
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Green Gully 1436 · Dandenong Thunder 1414
| Green Gully | Draw | Dandenong Thunder | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Green Gully | Dandenong Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.9 | 0.9 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 1.9 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Green Gully 1–4–1 Dandenong Thunder
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong Thunder | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Green Gully |
| 16/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Green Gully | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Dandenong Thunder |
| 13/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying | Green Gully | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Dandenong Thunder |
| 08/02/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong Thunder | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Green Gully |
| 29/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong Thunder | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Green Gully |
| 22/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Green Gully | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Dandenong Thunder |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Hume City | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 24 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 27 | 34 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 5 | Heidelberg Utd | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 26 | 32 |
| 6 | South Melbourne | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 23 |
| 10 | Dandenong City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 44 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Green Gully | Dandenong Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Bentleigh Greens | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| South Melbourne | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Hume City | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Avondale | 0-2 L | 0-11 L |
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Heidelberg Utd | 0-1 L | 2-4 L |
| Melbourne City FC 2 | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| St Albans Saints | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Oakleigh Cannons | 0-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 6 L | 1 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Green Gully (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Green Gully
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 03/07 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/06 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
Dandenong Thunder
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-3 | 0-11 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 08/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Green Gully win (44%). Probabilities: Green Gully 44%, draw 25%, Dandenong Thunder 31%.
How many goals are expected in Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder?
The model expects 2.96 goals (Green Gully 1.63 · Dandenong Thunder 1.32), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Green Gully vs Dandenong Thunder?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.