Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 17/07, 11:30
Prediction: Bentleigh Greens vs Dandenong City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Bentleigh Greens1.03
Dandenong City2.03
1X2
Bentleigh Greens
Draw
Dandenong City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bentleigh Greens
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Dandenong City
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bentleigh Greens
4–2
Dandenong City
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bentleigh Greens 1382 · Dandenong City 1517
| Bentleigh Greens | Draw | Dandenong City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| Market | 18% | 22% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dandenong City (rating 1382 vs 1517).
- H2H favours Bentleigh Greens: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bentleigh Greens | Dandenong City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.4 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.5 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.6 | 2.1 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bentleigh Greens 4–0–2 Dandenong City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong City | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Bentleigh Greens |
| 21/08/22 Australia Victoria Premier League | Dandenong City | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Bentleigh Greens |
| 13/05/22 Australia Victoria Premier League | Bentleigh Greens | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Dandenong City |
| 07/05/21 Australia Victoria Premier League | Dandenong City | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Bentleigh Greens |
| 02/08/19 Australia Victoria Premier League | Dandenong City | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Bentleigh Greens |
| 03/05/19 Australia Victoria Premier League | Bentleigh Greens | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Dandenong City |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Hume City | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 24 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 27 | 34 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 5 | Heidelberg Utd | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 26 | 32 |
| 6 | South Melbourne | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 23 |
| 10 | Dandenong City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 44 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bentleigh Greens | Dandenong City |
|---|---|---|
| Altona Magic | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| South Melbourne | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Hume City | 1-5 L | 0-0 D |
| Avondale | 0-4 L | 3-1 W |
| Heidelberg Utd | 0-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 5 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Dandenong City (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bentleigh Greens
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-3 | 1-5 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 15/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | Northcote City Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Dandenong City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 26/06 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-3 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 05/06 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 15/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 08/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bentleigh Greens vs Dandenong City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Dandenong City win (60%). Probabilities: Bentleigh Greens 18%, draw 23%, Dandenong City 60%.
How many goals are expected in Bentleigh Greens vs Dandenong City?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Bentleigh Greens 1.03 · Dandenong City 2.03), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Bentleigh Greens vs Dandenong City?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.