Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 24/07, 11:30

Prediction: Green Gully vs Dandenong City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Green Gully1.15

Dandenong City1.65

1X2

26% 26% 48%

Green Gully Draw Dandenong City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Green Gully 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Dandenong City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Green Gully 1–2–3 Dandenong City (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Green Gully 1453 · Dandenong City 1504

	Green Gully	Draw	Dandenong City
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dandenong City (rating 1453 vs 1504).
H2H favours Dandenong City: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Green Gully	Dandenong City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.60

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:54 +12’	3.40	3.60	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Green Gully 1–2–3 Dandenong City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong City	2-1 HT 2-1	Green Gully
13/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong City	0-0 HT 0-0	Green Gully
07/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Green Gully	0-5 HT 0-3	Dandenong City
06/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Green Gully	2-3 HT 0-1	Dandenong City
05/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong City	1-1 HT 0-1	Green Gully
11/06/22 Australia Victoria Premier League	Dandenong City	1-4 HT 1-1	Green Gully

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	21	14	5	2	44	18	47
2	Hume City	21	12	4	5	40	25	40
3	Avondale	21	11	2	8	54	28	35
4	Preston Lions	20	12	3	5	30	16	33
5	Heidelberg Utd	21	9	6	6	33	26	33
6	South Melbourne	21	10	2	9	31	32	32
7	Melbourne City FC 2	20	8	6	6	37	23	30
8	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	21	7	9	5	28	28	30
9	St Albans Saints	21	6	6	9	24	37	24
10	Altona Magic	21	6	5	10	24	36	23
11	Dandenong City	21	7	5	9	27	29	22
12	Bentleigh Greens	21	5	4	12	20	45	19
13	Dandenong Thunder	21	4	3	14	23	46	15
14	Green Gully	21	3	4	14	17	43	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Green Gully	Dandenong City
Bentleigh Greens	3-0 W	1-2 L
South Melbourne	2-1 W	0-2 L
Hume City	2-3 L	0-0 D
Avondale	0-2 L	3-1 W
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	0-0 D	2-3 L
Heidelberg Utd	0-1 L	4-1 W
Melbourne City FC 2	1-3 L	1-0 W
St Albans Saints	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Dandenong City (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Green Gully

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
10/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	3	8	L
03/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
28/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
20/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-3	4	4	L
05/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
30/05	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
22/05	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
15/05	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
08/05	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	5	5	L

Dandenong City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
10/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
26/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-1	0	4	W
20/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	2-3	9	4	L
05/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-1	4	0	W
30/05	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
22/05	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-1	3	0	W
15/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/05	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Green Gully vs Dandenong City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dandenong City win (48%). Probabilities: Green Gully 26%, draw 26%, Dandenong City 48%.

How many goals are expected in Green Gully vs Dandenong City?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Green Gully 1.15 · Dandenong City 1.65), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Green Gully vs Dandenong City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.