Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 16/08, 07:00

Prediction: Preston Lions vs Dandenong Thunder

Team pages: Preston Lions · Dandenong Thunder

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Preston Lions2.74

Dandenong Thunder0.81

1X2

77% 15% 8%

Preston Lions Draw Dandenong Thunder

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Preston Lions 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWWDW

Dandenong Thunder 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Preston Lions 2–1 Dandenong Thunder (3 last)

Dandenong Thunder0-1Preston Lions
Preston Lions2-0Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder3-0Preston Lions

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Preston Lions 1623 · Dandenong Thunder 1375

	Preston Lions	Draw	Dandenong Thunder
Our model	77%	15%	8%
Market	77%	14%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1623 vs 1375).
H2H favours Preston Lions: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Preston Lions	Dandenong Thunder
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	0.8 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.4	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.25

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.82

2 (+2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:30 +5’	1.17	6.25	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Preston Lions 2–0–1 Dandenong Thunder

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	0-1 HT 0-1	Preston Lions
23/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Preston Lions	2-0 HT 2-0	Dandenong Thunder
10/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	3-0 HT 3-0	Preston Lions

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	23	14	6	3	45	20	48
2	Hume City	23	13	4	6	43	28	43
3	Avondale	23	13	2	8	59	31	41
4	South Melbourne	23	12	2	9	35	33	38
5	Preston Lions	22	13	4	5	33	18	37
6	Heidelberg Utd	23	9	7	7	34	28	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	23	7	11	5	29	29	32
8	Melbourne City FC 2	22	8	6	8	39	27	30
9	Altona Magic	23	7	6	10	27	37	27
10	St Albans Saints	23	7	6	10	27	41	27
11	Dandenong City	23	8	6	9	30	29	26
12	Bentleigh Greens	23	5	5	13	20	46	20
13	Green Gully	23	3	6	14	19	45	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	23	4	3	16	23	51	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Preston Lions	Dandenong Thunder
Heidelberg Utd	3-1 W	2-4 L
Green Gully	2-2 D	1-3 L
Bentleigh Greens	1-0 W	2-1 W
South Melbourne	0-0 D	0-1 L
Hume City	2-1 W	1-3 L
Avondale	3-2 W	0-11 L
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Preston Lions (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Preston Lions

WWWWWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia Victoria Cup	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
31/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-2	5	0	D
24/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
21/07	Newcastle Jets Australia Cup	0-2	3-2	6	1	W
18/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
07/07	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Cup	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
04/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	3-2	6	5	W
27/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
20/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	6	2	W

Dandenong Thunder

LLLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
25/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
17/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
11/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
05/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
27/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	0	2	L
20/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	0-11	3	2	L
06/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-3	4	7	L
29/05	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-4	4	2	L
24/05	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Preston Lions vs Dandenong Thunder?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Preston Lions win (77%). Probabilities: Preston Lions 77%, draw 15%, Dandenong Thunder 8%.

How many goals are expected in Preston Lions vs Dandenong Thunder?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Preston Lions 2.74 · Dandenong Thunder 0.81), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Preston Lions vs Dandenong Thunder?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.