Prediction: South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder
Expected goals: 3.94 (South Melbourne 2.23 · Dandenong Thunder 1.7). The model gives 49% home, 22% draw, 29% away. Over 3.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (61%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, South Melbourne is 4-1-5 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Dandenong Thunder 2-1-7 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, South Melbourne won 3 and Dandenong Thunder 3.
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Melbourne | Dandenong Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 2.1 | 1.2 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.9 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne 3–0–3 Dandenong Thunder
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong Thunder | 3-0 HT 0-0 | South Melbourne |
| 22/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria | South Melbourne | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Dandenong Thunder |
| 15/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong Thunder | 1-0 HT 0-0 | South Melbourne |
| 07/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria | South Melbourne | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Dandenong Thunder |
| 06/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong Thunder | 1-2 HT 1-0 | South Melbourne |
| 13/06/23 Australia Victoria Premier League | South Melbourne | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Dandenong Thunder |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 17 | 40 |
| 2 | Hume City | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 22 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 18 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 51 | 22 | 34 |
| 4 | Heidelberg Utd | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 31 |
| 5 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 26 |
| 6 | Preston Lions | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 26 |
| 7 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| 8 | South Melbourne | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 25 |
| 9 | Dandenong City | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 22 |
| 10 | St Albans Saints | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 34 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 32 | 19 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 41 | 12 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 39 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | South Melbourne | Dandenong Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Altona Magic | 2-3 L | 4-2 W |
| Hume City | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Avondale | 0-4 L | 0-11 L |
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 0-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
South Melbourne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
3-1 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Auckland FC II OFC Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Vanuatu United OFC Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Bula OFC Pro League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | South Island United OFC Pro League |
4-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Dandenong Thunder
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-3 | 0-11 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 08/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?
According to our model, the most likely result is a South Melbourne win (49%). Probabilities: South Melbourne 49%, draw 22%, Dandenong Thunder 29%.
How many goals are expected in South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?
The model expects 3.94 goals (South Melbourne 2.23 · Dandenong Thunder 1.7), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in South Melbourne vs Dandenong Thunder?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.