Prediction: Oakleigh Cannons vs Avondale
Expected goals: 3.18 (Oakleigh Cannons 1.6 · Avondale 1.59). The model gives 38% home, 25% draw, 37% away. Over 3 goals (51%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Oakleigh Cannons with 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses over 10 games; Avondale has piled up 5-0-5 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Oakleigh Cannons won 2 and Avondale 2, with 2 draws.
| Oakleigh Cannons | Draw | Avondale | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 37% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oakleigh Cannons (rating 1596 vs 1525).
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Oakleigh Cannons | Avondale | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.6 | 3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.5 | 2.8 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Oakleigh Cannons 2–2–2 Avondale
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Avondale | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Oakleigh Cannons |
| 17/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Avondale | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Oakleigh Cannons |
| 07/02/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Oakleigh Cannons | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Avondale |
| 31/08/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Avondale | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Oakleigh Cannons |
| 13/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Avondale | 3-3 HT 0-1 | Oakleigh Cannons |
| 18/06/24 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | Oakleigh Cannons | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Avondale |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 41 | 18 | 41 |
| 2 | Hume City | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 22 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 53 | 25 | 34 |
| 4 | Heidelberg Utd | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 31 |
| 5 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 20 | 29 |
| 6 | Preston Lions | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 29 |
| 7 | South Melbourne | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 32 | 28 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 26 | 26 |
| 9 | Dandenong City | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 22 |
| 10 | St Albans Saints | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 34 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 35 | 19 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 42 | 12 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 39 | 10 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Oakleigh Cannons | Avondale |
|---|---|---|
| Preston Lions | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Dandenong City | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Dandenong Thunder | 2-0 W | 11-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Oakleigh Cannons (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oakleigh Cannons
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/06 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 19/06 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/06 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/05 | St Albans Saints Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
Avondale
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 26/06 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
3-0 | 11-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | Midleton FC Republic of Ireland Munster Senior League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 12/05 | Brunswick City Australia Cup Qualifying |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oakleigh Cannons vs Avondale?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Oakleigh Cannons win (38%). Probabilities: Oakleigh Cannons 38%, draw 25%, Avondale 37%.
How many goals are expected in Oakleigh Cannons vs Avondale?
The model expects 3.18 goals (Oakleigh Cannons 1.6 · Avondale 1.59), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Oakleigh Cannons vs Avondale?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.