Prediction: Dandenong City vs South Melbourne
Expected goals: 3.19 (Dandenong City 1.72 · South Melbourne 1.47). The model gives 43% home, 25% draw, 32% away. Over 3 goals (50%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Dandenong City with 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses over 10 games; South Melbourne has piled up 4-1-5 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Dandenong City won 2 and South Melbourne 2, with 2 draws.
| Dandenong City | Draw | South Melbourne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dandenong City (rating 1512 vs 1457).
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dandenong City | South Melbourne | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1 | 1.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.5 | 3.3 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dandenong City 2–2–2 South Melbourne
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria | South Melbourne | 4-2 HT 0-0 | Dandenong City |
| 04/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong City | 3-3 HT 1-3 | South Melbourne |
| 10/06/25 Australia Cup Qualifying | Dandenong City | 1-1 HT 1-0 | South Melbourne |
| 31/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria | South Melbourne | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Dandenong City |
| 19/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria | South Melbourne | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Dandenong City |
| 19/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Dandenong City | 0-4 HT 0-3 | South Melbourne |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 41 | 18 | 41 |
| 2 | Hume City | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 22 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 53 | 25 | 34 |
| 4 | Heidelberg Utd | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 31 |
| 5 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 20 | 29 |
| 6 | Preston Lions | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 29 |
| 7 | South Melbourne | 19 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 32 | 28 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 26 | 26 |
| 9 | Dandenong City | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 22 |
| 10 | St Albans Saints | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 34 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 35 | 19 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 42 | 12 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 39 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Dandenong City | South Melbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Hume City | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Avondale | 3-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 2-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Altona Magic | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Dandenong Thunder | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Dandenong City (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dandenong City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 26/06 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-3 | 2-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 05/06 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 15/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 08/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 24/04 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
South Melbourne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
3-1 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Auckland FC II OFC Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Vanuatu United OFC Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Bula OFC Pro League |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dandenong City vs South Melbourne?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Dandenong City win (43%). Probabilities: Dandenong City 43%, draw 25%, South Melbourne 32%.
How many goals are expected in Dandenong City vs South Melbourne?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Dandenong City 1.72 · South Melbourne 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Dandenong City vs South Melbourne?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.