Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 18/07, 07:15
Prediction: Altona Magic vs Heidelberg Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Altona Magic1.17
Heidelberg Utd1.77
1X2
Altona Magic
Draw
Heidelberg Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Altona Magic
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Heidelberg Utd
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Altona Magic
0–2–4
Heidelberg Utd
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Altona Magic 1494 · Heidelberg Utd 1504
| Altona Magic | Draw | Heidelberg Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Market | 25% | 24% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Heidelberg Utd: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Altona Magic | Heidelberg Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.8 | 3.6 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Altona Magic 0–2–4 Heidelberg Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Heidelberg Utd | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Altona Magic |
| 05/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Altona Magic | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Heidelberg Utd |
| 28/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Heidelberg Utd | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Altona Magic |
| 22/05/24 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | Altona Magic | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Heidelberg Utd |
| 19/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Heidelberg Utd | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Altona Magic |
| 10/02/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Altona Magic | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Heidelberg Utd |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Hume City | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 24 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 27 | 34 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 5 | Heidelberg Utd | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 26 | 32 |
| 6 | South Melbourne | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 23 |
| 10 | Dandenong City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 44 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Altona Magic | Heidelberg Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Green Gully | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Melbourne City FC 2 | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Bentleigh Greens | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| St Albans Saints | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Oakleigh Cannons | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Preston Lions | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Dandenong City | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Heidelberg Utd (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Altona Magic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 04/07 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/06 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 07/06 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
1-2 | 1-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
Heidelberg Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 03/07 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/06 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 20/06 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 1-4 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Altona Magic vs Heidelberg Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Heidelberg Utd win (51%). Probabilities: Altona Magic 25%, draw 25%, Heidelberg Utd 51%.
How many goals are expected in Altona Magic vs Heidelberg Utd?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Altona Magic 1.17 · Heidelberg Utd 1.77), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Altona Magic vs Heidelberg Utd?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.