Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 18/07, 07:00
Prediction: Avondale vs St Albans Saints
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.75Total
Avondale2.67
St Albans Saints1.08
1X2
Avondale
Draw
St Albans Saints
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Avondale
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
St Albans Saints
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Avondale
5–1–0
St Albans Saints
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Avondale 1511 · St Albans Saints 1460
| Avondale | Draw | St Albans Saints | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 17% | 12% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Avondale (rating 1511 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Avondale: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Avondale | St Albans Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6.3 | 3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Avondale 5–1–0 St Albans Saints
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria | St Albans Saints | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Avondale |
| 14/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Avondale | 2-2 HT 1-1 | St Albans Saints |
| 08/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria | St Albans Saints | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Avondale |
| 25/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Avondale | 2-1 HT 1-0 | St Albans Saints |
| 18/02/24 Australia NPL Victoria | St Albans Saints | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Avondale |
| 23/07/23 Australia Victoria Premier League | St Albans Saints | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Avondale |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Hume City | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 24 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 27 | 34 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 5 | Heidelberg Utd | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 26 | 32 |
| 6 | South Melbourne | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 23 |
| 10 | Dandenong City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 44 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Avondale | St Albans Saints |
|---|---|---|
| Oakleigh Cannons | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Preston Lions | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Dandenong City | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Dandenong Thunder | 11-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Green Gully | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Avondale
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 26/06 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
3-0 | 11-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | Midleton FC Republic of Ireland Munster Senior League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/06 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
St Albans Saints
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 03/07 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/06 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 12/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Avondale vs St Albans Saints?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Avondale win (70%). Probabilities: Avondale 70%, draw 18%, St Albans Saints 12%.
How many goals are expected in Avondale vs St Albans Saints?
The model expects 3.75 goals (Avondale 2.67 · St Albans Saints 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Avondale vs St Albans Saints?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.