Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 18/07, 06:00
Prediction: Hume City vs Oakleigh Cannons
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
Hume City1.35
Oakleigh Cannons1.66
1X2
Hume City
Draw
Oakleigh Cannons
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hume City
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Oakleigh Cannons
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hume City
1–5
Oakleigh Cannons
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hume City 1569 · Oakleigh Cannons 1619
| Hume City | Draw | Oakleigh Cannons | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Market | 31% | 24% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oakleigh Cannons (rating 1569 vs 1619).
- H2H favours Oakleigh Cannons: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hume City | Oakleigh Cannons | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hume City 1–0–5 Oakleigh Cannons
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Oakleigh Cannons | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Hume City |
| 18/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Oakleigh Cannons | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Hume City |
| 20/05/25 Australia Cup Qualifying | Hume City | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Oakleigh Cannons |
| 04/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Hume City | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Oakleigh Cannons |
| 18/08/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Oakleigh Cannons | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Hume City |
| 11/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria | Hume City | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Oakleigh Cannons |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Hume City | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 24 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 27 | 34 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 5 | Heidelberg Utd | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 26 | 32 |
| 6 | South Melbourne | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 23 |
| 10 | Dandenong City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 44 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hume City | Oakleigh Cannons |
|---|---|---|
| Preston Lions | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Dandenong City | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Altona Magic | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Avondale | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 4-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Heidelberg Utd | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Hume City (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hume City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 27/06 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 05/06 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
3-1 | 5-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
3-2 | 4-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Oakleigh Cannons
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/06 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 19/06 | Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/06 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 12/05 | St Albans Saints Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hume City vs Oakleigh Cannons?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Oakleigh Cannons win (44%). Probabilities: Hume City 31%, draw 25%, Oakleigh Cannons 44%.
How many goals are expected in Hume City vs Oakleigh Cannons?
The model expects 3.01 goals (Hume City 1.35 · Oakleigh Cannons 1.66), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hume City vs Oakleigh Cannons?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.