Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 18/07, 07:15
Prediction: South Melbourne vs Preston Lions
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
South Melbourne1.28
Preston Lions1.44
1X2
South Melbourne
Draw
Preston Lions
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
South Melbourne
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Preston Lions
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
South Melbourne
3–1
Preston Lions
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South Melbourne 1485 · Preston Lions 1587
| South Melbourne | Draw | Preston Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 24% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1485 vs 1587).
- H2H favours South Melbourne: 3-0-1.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Melbourne | Preston Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1.7 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.5 | 4 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne 3–0–1 Preston Lions
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria | Preston Lions | 0-3 HT 0-0 | South Melbourne |
| 15/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria | South Melbourne | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Preston Lions |
| 07/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria | Preston Lions | 2-0 HT 0-0 | South Melbourne |
| 21/05/24 Australia FFA Cup Qualifying | Preston Lions | 2-5 HT 1-1 | South Melbourne |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Hume City | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 24 | 40 |
| 3 | Avondale | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 53 | 27 | 34 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 32 |
| 5 | Heidelberg Utd | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 33 | 26 | 32 |
| 6 | South Melbourne | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 32 | 31 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 27 | 28 | 27 |
| 9 | St Albans Saints | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 36 | 23 |
| 10 | Dandenong City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Altona Magic | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 36 | 22 |
| 12 | Bentleigh Greens | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 44 | 16 |
| 13 | Dandenong Thunder | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 15 |
| 14 | Green Gully | 20 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 42 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | South Melbourne | Preston Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Dandenong City | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Altona Magic | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Hume City | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Avondale | 0-4 L | 3-2 W |
| Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 0-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Preston Lions (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
South Melbourne
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 19/06 | Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria |
3-1 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Auckland FC II OFC Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Vanuatu United OFC Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
Preston Lions
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Hume City Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 07/07 | North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Avondale Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in South Melbourne vs Preston Lions?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Preston Lions win (41%). Probabilities: South Melbourne 33%, draw 26%, Preston Lions 41%.
How many goals are expected in South Melbourne vs Preston Lions?
The model expects 2.72 goals (South Melbourne 1.28 · Preston Lions 1.44), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in South Melbourne vs Preston Lions?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.