Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 15/08, 07:00

Prediction: Heidelberg Utd vs Hume City

Team pages: Heidelberg Utd · Hume City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Heidelberg Utd1.51

Hume City1.34

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Heidelberg Utd Draw Hume City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Heidelberg Utd 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDWDLL

Hume City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDLLLW

Head-to-head

Heidelberg Utd 2–3–1 Hume City (6 last)

Hume City2-1Heidelberg Utd
Hume City0-1Heidelberg Utd
Heidelberg Utd5-1Hume City
Heidelberg Utd1-1Hume City
Heidelberg Utd1-1Hume City
Hume City2-2Heidelberg Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heidelberg Utd 1490 · Hume City 1535

	Heidelberg Utd	Draw	Hume City
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hume City (rating 1490 vs 1535).
H2H favours Heidelberg Utd: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heidelberg Utd	Hume City
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:08	2.20	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heidelberg Utd 2–3–1 Hume City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	2-1 HT 1-0	Heidelberg Utd
20/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	0-1 HT 0-1	Heidelberg Utd
14/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	5-1 HT 1-1	Hume City
23/08/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Hume City
26/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Heidelberg Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Hume City
27/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Hume City	2-2 HT 0-1	Heidelberg Utd

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	23	14	6	3	45	20	48
2	Hume City	23	13	4	6	43	28	43
3	Avondale	23	13	2	8	59	31	41
4	South Melbourne	23	12	2	9	35	33	38
5	Preston Lions	22	13	4	5	33	18	37
6	Heidelberg Utd	23	9	7	7	34	28	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	23	7	11	5	29	29	32
8	Melbourne City FC 2	22	8	6	8	39	27	30
9	Altona Magic	23	7	6	10	27	37	27
10	St Albans Saints	23	7	6	10	27	41	27
11	Dandenong City	23	8	6	9	30	29	26
12	Bentleigh Greens	23	5	5	13	20	46	20
13	Green Gully	23	3	6	14	19	45	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	23	4	3	16	23	51	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heidelberg Utd	Hume City
Preston Lions	1-3 L	1-2 L
Altona Magic	0-0 D	3-1 W
Melbourne City FC 2	2-2 D	1-0 W
St Albans Saints	1-1 D	2-3 L
Oakleigh Cannons	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hume City (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Heidelberg Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Preston Lions Australia Victoria Cup	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
01/08	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
24/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
21/07	Cumberland United Australia Cup	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
18/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
11/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
03/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/06	Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
20/06	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	6	2	L

Hume City

WDWWWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
24/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-3	2-3	2	5	L
18/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
10/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
04/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
27/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
20/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
05/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	8	0	W
30/05	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
23/05	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	3-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heidelberg Utd vs Hume City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Heidelberg Utd win (41%). Probabilities: Heidelberg Utd 41%, draw 26%, Hume City 33%.

How many goals are expected in Heidelberg Utd vs Hume City?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Heidelberg Utd 1.51 · Hume City 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Heidelberg Utd vs Hume City?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.