Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 14/08, 11:45

Prediction: Dandenong City vs Altona Magic

Team pages: Dandenong City · Altona Magic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Dandenong City1.42

Altona Magic1.17

1X2

42% 27% 30%

Dandenong City Draw Altona Magic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dandenong City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLLDW

Altona Magic 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWDWD

Head-to-head

Dandenong City 4–1–1 Altona Magic (6 last)

Altona Magic1-0Dandenong City
Dandenong City2-1Altona Magic
Altona Magic0-0Dandenong City
Altona Magic0-2Dandenong City
Dandenong City3-2Altona Magic
Dandenong City2-1Altona Magic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dandenong City 1512 · Altona Magic 1505

	Dandenong City	Draw	Altona Magic
Our model	42%	29%	30%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dandenong City: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dandenong City	Altona Magic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:37 +4’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dandenong City 4–1–1 Altona Magic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	1-0 HT 1-0	Dandenong City
20/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong City	2-1 HT 2-1	Altona Magic
15/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	0-0 HT 0-0	Dandenong City
25/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Altona Magic	0-2 HT 0-1	Dandenong City
16/02/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong City	3-2 HT 1-0	Altona Magic
09/07/22 Australia Victoria Premier League	Dandenong City	2-1 HT 0-1	Altona Magic

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	23	14	6	3	45	20	48
2	Hume City	23	13	4	6	43	28	43
3	Avondale	23	13	2	8	59	31	41
4	South Melbourne	23	12	2	9	35	33	38
5	Preston Lions	22	13	4	5	33	18	37
6	Heidelberg Utd	23	9	7	7	34	28	34
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	23	7	11	5	29	29	32
8	Melbourne City FC 2	22	8	6	8	39	27	30
9	Altona Magic	23	7	6	10	27	37	27
10	St Albans Saints	23	7	6	10	27	41	27
11	Dandenong City	23	8	6	9	30	29	26
12	Bentleigh Greens	23	5	5	13	20	46	20
13	Green Gully	23	3	6	14	19	45	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	23	4	3	16	23	51	15

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dandenong City	Altona Magic
Dandenong Thunder	3-0 W	2-0 W
Green Gully	0-0 D	3-1 W
Bentleigh Greens	1-2 L	1-0 W
South Melbourne	0-2 L	3-2 W
Hume City	0-0 D	1-3 L
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-3 L	1-1 D
Heidelberg Utd	4-1 W	0-0 D
Melbourne City FC 2	1-0 W	0-3 L
St Albans Saints	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Dandenong City (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dandenong City

WWWLWDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
24/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
17/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
10/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
26/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-1	0	4	W
20/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	2-3	9	4	L
05/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-1	4	0	W
30/05	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
22/05	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-1	3	0	W

Altona Magic

LLWLWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
25/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
18/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
10/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-1	4	8	W
04/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
26/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
21/06	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
07/06	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
23/05	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	1-3	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dandenong City vs Altona Magic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dandenong City win (42%). Probabilities: Dandenong City 42%, draw 27%, Altona Magic 30%.

How many goals are expected in Dandenong City vs Altona Magic?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Dandenong City 1.42 · Altona Magic 1.17), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dandenong City vs Altona Magic?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.